Finnovate Weekly Capsule (June 30 - July 04, 2025)

As Q2 begins, the financial and policy landscape is brimming with shifts - from India’s slowing industrial output to a wave of IPO filings, geopolitical trade developments, and the global weakening of the US dollar. Here's your essential roundup of this week's key financial updates.

1. Indian IIP Growth Falls to 1.23% in May 2025

Impact Analysis:

• The sharp fall in the IIP was on account of deep cuts in power output and manufacturing; mining remained flat.
• Slowdown is being attributed to reduced capital expenditure and weakening global export trade.

2. India’s Fiscal Deficit at 0.8% of GDP as of May-End

Impact Analysis:

• The figure is skewed due to the RBI’s mega ₹2.69 trillion dividend booked in May.
• Revenue and primary accounts showed a temporary surplus, expected to normalize in subsequent months.

3. US Jobless Rate Falls to 4.1% in June

Impact Analysis:

• Non-farm payrolls grew by 147,000 - above the 100,000 monthly requirement for target GDP.
• Employment figures signal economic resilience despite external pressures.

4. FPIs Invest $1.71 Billion in Indian Equities in June

Impact Analysis:

• Third consecutive month of equity inflows; FPIs continue to exit Indian debt markets.
• BFSI, Oil & Gas, Auto, and Telecom saw buying; Power, FMCG, and Consumer Goods witnessed selling.

5. Meesho Files Confidential DRHP for ₹4,250 Crore IPO

Impact Analysis:

• The confidential route allows SEBI feedback without public disclosure.
• Backed by Prosus, Softbank, Elevation, Westbridge, and Peak XV - these investors will participate via OFS.

6. Godrej Consumer Forecasts Strong Q1FY26 Growth

Impact Analysis:

• Driven by high single-digit volume growth, especially in home care.
• Personal care segment expected to show low-single digit growth due to pricing/demand rebalancing.

7. SEBI Bars Jane Street for Index Manipulation

Impact Analysis:

• SEBI alleged Jane Street manipulated indexes using large trades, hurting retail investors.
• SEBI barred the firm and seized $567 million as security.

8. Piyush Goyal: India Ready for Trade Deal, No Compromise

Impact Analysis:

• India racing to meet July 09 deadline before US reciprocal tariffs kick in.
• India remains firm on excluding full access to services, agriculture, and GM crops.

9. India Invites Copper Majors Amidst Shortage

Impact Analysis:

• Imports cover nearly 80% of India’s copper needs - likely to exceed 90% with demand growth.
• Government has reached out to Codelco (Chile) and BHP (Australia) to set up domestic refineries.

10. India Plans $230 Million Drone Incentive After Operation Sindoor

Impact Analysis:

• Operation revealed Pakistan’s drone support from China and Turkey.
• India plans to build indigenous capabilities, inspired by Ukraine-Russia drone warfare.

11. India May Impose Retaliatory Tariffs on US Auto Tariff

Impact Analysis:

• $2.89 billion worth of Indian auto exports affected by US 25% tariff.
• India flagged it at WTO and may now impose reciprocal measures amidst souring relations.

12. Reliance Retail to Spin Off Consumer Goods Arm

Impact Analysis:

• Reliance Consumer competes with Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Nestle, and Mondelez.
• Spinoff allows sharper capital allocation and can attract fresh investor interest.

13. HDFC Bank Sees Solid Q1FY26 Performance

Impact Analysis:

• Total deposits rose 16.4%; gross advances up 6.7% YoY.
• Time deposits surged 22.1%, while CASA deposits grew just 6.1%, reflecting savings mix shift.

14. India Targets $1 Trillion Chemicals Output by 2040

Impact Analysis:

• NITI Aayog proposes subsidies, FTAs, and R&D incentives to capture 12% global share.
• Focus on specialty and green chemicals aligned with innovation and sustainability.

15. PVR Inox to Invest ₹400 Crore for 200 New Screens

Impact Analysis:

• 100 new screens planned for FY26, with 40% located in Southern India.
• Focus on expansion in metros and Tier-2/Tier-3 cities across the South.

16. Temasek and Manipal Hospitals Acquire Sahyadri Hospitals

Impact Analysis:

• Deal valued at ₹6,150 crore; boosts Manipal’s presence in Maharashtra.
• Sahyadri owns 1,200+ beds across Pune, Nashik, and Ahmednagar.

17. Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Enacted

Impact Analysis:

• Major tax cuts enacted, but healthcare benefits reduced substantially.
• The bill will balloon the US fiscal deficit and increase debt-to-GDP ratio.

18. CCI Acts Against Ultratech Cements in Cartelization Probe

Impact Analysis:

• Triggered by ONGC’s complaint about bid-rigging in cement tenders.
• Preliminary findings show violations by India Cements, Dalmia, and Digvijay Cements.

19. Travel Food Services Raises ₹599 Crore From Anchor Investors

Impact Analysis:

• ₹1,100/share raised from 33 MFs and FIIs a day before IPO.
• ₹2,000 crore IPO is an offer for sale with Kapoor family reducing stake.

20. India and Japan Collaborate on Rare Earth Magnets

Impact Analysis:

• With China curbing exports, India and Japan aim to reduce reliance for auto industry needs.
• New channels expected to secure rare earth supply.

21. US Dollar Records Worst First-Half Performance in 50 Years

Impact Analysis:

• Dollar Index dropped from 110 to below 97 - down over 10.8%.
• Driven by geopolitics, Trump’s flawed tariff policies, and extravagant OBBBA spending.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.