20 Years of Muhurat Trading: What the Data Reveals About Indian Markets
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Every year during Diwali, Dalal Street pauses its normal schedule for a special tradition: Muhurat Trading.
For a short trading window, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) open to mark the beginning of the new Hindu accounting year, known as Samvat.
The tradition began at the BSE in 1957. It takes place around Lakshmi Pujan and is closely associated with Chopda Pujan, the traditional opening of new account books. For generations, families, traders and businesses have used the occasion to make symbolic investments and welcome the new financial year on a positive note.
But beyond the festive mood and ceremonial bell ringing, there is a practical question for investors:
Does a positive start during Muhurat Trading tell us anything about how markets will perform over the year ahead?
To understand this, we looked at 20 years of Muhurat Trading data, along with broader market trends, sector cycles, gold returns, institutional flows and changing valuations.
Here is what the numbers reveal.
Historical data shows a positive bias during the special session, but typical moves are small. Broader markets, gold, domestic investor flows and changing valuations tell a much larger story than the one-hour return alone.
Key Takeaways
The 60-Minute Micro-Rally: 20 Years of Muhurat Trading
The most visible pattern in Muhurat Trading is its positive bias.
Across the 20 sessions from 2006 to 2025, the Nifty 50 ended higher in 15 sessions and lower in five.
More recently, the Nifty has closed positive in every Muhurat session from 2018 through 2025.
But the win rate tells only half the story.
Most Muhurat moves have been small. The session is far more consistent at finishing slightly positive than it is at producing large gains.
Muhurat Trading Historical Performance: 2006 to 2025
| Date | Nifty 50 Open | Nifty 50 Close | Nifty 50 Move | Sensex Move | Market Backdrop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2006 | 3,680.85 | 3,683.50 | +0.18% | +0.21% | Strong domestic growth and corporate earnings |
| 09 Nov 2007 | 5,703.45 | 5,663.25 | -0.62% | -0.79% | Elevated valuations ahead of the global credit crisis |
| 28 Oct 2008 | 2,526.20 | 2,684.60 | +6.35% | +5.85% | Sharp relief rally during the Global Financial Crisis |
| 17 Oct 2009 | 5,159.35 | 5,141.80 | -0.01% | +0.02% | Markets stabilising after the post-crisis rebound |
| 05 Nov 2010 | 6,321.85 | 6,312.45 | +0.48% | +0.53% | Strong foreign flows into emerging markets |
| 26 Oct 2011 | 5,214.95 | 5,201.80 | +0.19% | +0.19% | European debt concerns and high domestic inflation |
| 13 Nov 2012 | 5,689.70 | 5,666.95 | -0.29% | -0.27% | Cautious sentiment amid domestic policy concerns |
| 03 Nov 2013 | 6,332.05 | 6,317.35 | +0.16% | +0.20% | Markets recovering from taper-related volatility |
| 23 Oct 2014 | 8,027.70 | 8,014.55 | +0.23% | +0.23% | Post-election optimism |
| 11 Nov 2015 | 7,838.80 | 7,825.00 | +0.53% | +0.48% | Asset-quality concerns and weak commodity prices |
| 30 Oct 2016 | 8,672.35 | 8,625.70 | -0.14% | -0.04% | Mild profit-taking amid global uncertainty |
| 19 Oct 2017 | 10,210.35 | 10,146.55 | -0.63% | -0.59% | Profit-taking after a strong market run |
| 07 Nov 2018 | 10,614.45 | 10,598.40 | +0.65% | +0.70% | Domestic credit-market stress following IL&FS |
| 27 Oct 2019 | 11,662.25 | 11,627.15 | +0.37% | +0.49% | Improved sentiment after corporate tax cuts |
| 14 Nov 2020 | 12,823.35 | 12,780.25 | +0.47% | +0.45% | Post-pandemic liquidity and market recovery |
| 04 Nov 2021 | 17,935.05 | 17,916.80 | +0.49% | +0.49% | Strong retail participation after the post-Covid rally |
| 24 Oct 2022 | 17,736.35 | 17,730.75 | +0.87% | +0.87% | Domestic buying amid aggressive global rate hikes |
| 12 Nov 2023 | 19,547.25 | 19,525.55 | +0.51% | +0.54% | Resilient domestic economy despite global uncertainty |
| 01 Nov 2024 | 24,302.75 | 24,304.35 | +0.40% | +0.42% | Strong domestic participation amid foreign selling |
| 21 Oct 2025 | 25,901.20 | 25,868.60 | +0.10% | +0.07% | Modest headline gains during the special session |
Source: Historical exchange data compiled from NSE. Percentage moves refer to the Muhurat session versus the previous market close.
Why Does Muhurat Trading So Often Finish Positive?
Part of the answer lies in investor behaviour.
- Symbolic buying: Many investors use the session to make a small first investment for the new Samvat year.
- Lower willingness to sell: The occasion is traditionally associated with starting something new rather than exiting investments.
- A short trading window: With activity compressed into a brief session, temporary order imbalances can have a visible impact on prices.
So while Muhurat Trading has shown a positive bias, the typical gain has been modest.
Does a Positive Muhurat Session Predict the Year Ahead?
This is where the data becomes more interesting.
A common assumption is that a strong Muhurat session signals a good Samvat ahead.
Historically, the connection has been weak.
When we compare the direction of the Muhurat session with where the Nifty stands by the following Muhurat, a positive first session has not meaningfully improved the odds of a positive year.
Why the One-Hour Session Does Not Predict the Year
A Muhurat session reflects the sentiment and orders placed during a very short trading window.
A full Samvat year is influenced by much larger forces:
- company revenue and profit growth
- valuations
- Reserve Bank of India policy
- global interest rates
- commodity prices
- currency movements
- foreign and domestic investor flows
- geopolitical events
A symbolic purchase of five or ten shares cannot change a company's sales, margins or debt.
Once normal trading resumes, fundamentals take over.
The Opening-Pop Pattern
There is another interesting feature in the historical data.
In many years, the market opens above the previous trading day's close and then gives back part of that gain during the Muhurat session.
That means an index can technically finish Muhurat Trading in the green while still closing below its own Muhurat opening level.
Historical Examples of Decoupling
In 2008, the Nifty surged more than 6% during Muhurat Trading, yet the broader market still had several difficult months ahead as the Global Financial Crisis continued.
In 2017, the Muhurat session fell 0.63%, but that one-hour decline did not determine the direction of the market over the following year.
Muhurat sentiment and long-term market performance are two very different things.
Looking Beyond the Nifty: What Happens Across Market Caps?
The Nifty 50 and Sensex receive most of the attention during Muhurat Trading. But they represent only India's largest listed companies.
A more interesting picture emerges when we compare large-, mid-, small- and micro-cap indices side by side.
Muhurat Trading Across Market Caps: 2015 to 2024
| Year | Nifty 50 | Nifty Midcap 150 | Nifty Smallcap 250 | Nifty Microcap 250 | Notable Session Dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +0.40% | +0.68% | +1.11% | +1.09% | Small- and micro-cap gains were more than twice the Nifty 50 move. |
| 2023 | +0.51% | +0.67% | +1.14% | +1.33% | Returns strengthened steadily as we moved down the market-cap curve. |
| 2022 | +0.87% | +0.50% | +1.31% | +1.45% | Large caps were strong, but small- and micro-caps still finished ahead. |
| 2021 | +0.49% | +0.42% | +0.78% | +1.12% | Microcaps gained more than twice as much as the Nifty 50. |
| 2020 | +0.47% | +0.61% | +0.84% | +1.28% | The smaller the market-cap segment, the stronger the session return. |
| 2019 | +0.37% | +0.21% | +0.55% | +0.62% | A muted session overall, but smaller-company indices still led. |
| 2018 | +0.65% | +0.78% | +1.22% | +1.41% | Returns rose progressively from large caps towards microcaps. |
| 2017 | -0.63% | -0.45% | -0.21% | -0.08% | All four declined, but losses became smaller further down the market-cap curve. |
| 2016 | -0.14% | +0.12% | +0.18% | +0.35% | Large caps slipped while the broader-market indices finished positive. |
| 2015 | +0.53% | +0.58% | +0.81% | +0.98% | All four gained, with stronger moves in the smaller-company segments. |
Source: NSE historical broad-market analysis and Nifty index history. Nifty 50 values are aligned with the 20-year table above. The comparison is shown through 2024 for the consistent four-index series used here.
The pattern is hard to miss. In most of these sessions, the stronger move was not in the Nifty 50 but further down the market-cap curve.
Even 2017, when all four indices ended lower, followed an interesting pattern: the decline became progressively smaller from large caps to microcaps. In 2020, the opposite happened, with returns increasing steadily as company size declined.
NSE's longer historical study points in the same direction. The Nifty Microcap 250 was the strongest performer among five broad-market indices in all but two Muhurat sessions in the period it studied since 2006.
Smaller-company indices can naturally show larger percentage moves because liquidity is lower and prices can react more sharply to order flows. The data shows a recurring historical pattern, but it does not establish that microcaps are automatically better Muhurat investments.
Sector Leadership Changes From One Samvat to the Next
Market-cap leadership is only one layer of the story. Over a full Samvat year, leadership also rotates sharply between sectors.
Different parts of the market have performed well during very different economic environments.
Sector Trends Across Recent Samvat Cycles
| Sector | Pattern Over the Decade | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty Bank | Positive across most Samvat cycles | Improving asset quality, stronger corporate balance sheets and credit growth |
| Nifty Auto | Highly cyclical, with stronger performance after 2020 | Premium vehicles, SUVs, rural demand and EV investment |
| Nifty FMCG | Relatively steady across market cycles | Stable consumer demand and lower business cyclicality |
| Nifty IT | Strong gains around 2020–21 followed by moderation | Global digital spending followed by softer technology budgets |
| Nifty Pharma | Stronger performance in the later part of the decade | Domestic growth, improving margins and reduced regulatory pressure |
| Nifty Realty | Sharp revival after 2021 | Lower developer debt, inventory absorption and stronger housing demand |
The important point is not which sector won most often.
It is that market leadership rotates.
The sector that performed best in one Samvat may not remain the leader in the next.
For investors, chasing last year's winner is very different from building a diversified portfolio around long-term goals.
Nifty 50 vs Gold: What Happened From One Diwali to the Next?
Diwali has traditionally been associated not only with equities but also with buying gold around Dhanteras.
That makes the comparison particularly interesting.
Over the last decade, domestic gold has delivered strong returns across several Samvat periods and has outperformed the Nifty 50 in seven of the ten cycles in this comparison.
Diwali-to-Diwali Performance: Nifty 50 vs Domestic Gold
| Samvat Period | Nifty 50 Return | Domestic Gold Return | Better Performer | Market Backdrop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2072 (2015–16) | +8.0% | +11.8% | Gold | Global growth concerns and Chinese currency volatility |
| 2073 (2016–17) | +16.6% | +1.5% | Nifty 50 | Remonetisation and GST rollout |
| 2074 (2017–18) | +3.5% | +7.2% | Gold | Domestic credit stress and rising global yields |
| 2075 (2018–19) | +10.3% | +22.0% | Gold | US-China tensions and domestic corporate tax cuts |
| 2076 (2019–20) | -2.1% | +32.5% | Gold | Global pandemic shock |
| 2077 (2020–21) | +38.5% | -4.2% | Nifty 50 | Economic reopening and strong earnings recovery |
| 2078 (2021–22) | -1.2% | +13.5% | Gold | Russia-Ukraine conflict and aggressive rate hikes |
| 2079 (2022–23) | +10.8% | +21.4% | Gold | Persistent inflation and global banking stress |
| 2080 (2023–24) | +25.4% | +32.0% | Gold | Central-bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainty |
| 2081 (2024–25) | +6.7% | +40%+* | Gold | Strong global gold rally and central-bank demand |
*Gold returns vary depending on the exact benchmark and comparison date used.
Why Has Domestic Gold Performed Differently?
For Indian investors, the domestic gold price is influenced by two important variables:
- the international price of gold in US dollars
- the value of the Indian rupee against the US dollar
When international gold rises, Indian prices benefit.
And when the rupee weakens, the domestic gold price can receive an additional boost.
This is one reason gold can behave differently from Indian equities during periods of global stress.
The Changing Market Structure: FIIs, DIIs and Domestic SIPs
One of the biggest changes in Indian markets over the last decade has happened away from price charts.
The source of market liquidity has changed.
Before 2015: Foreign Flows Mattered More
Foreign institutional investors were a much larger force relative to domestic institutions.
When global risk appetite deteriorated and foreign investors sold aggressively, Indian markets often had fewer domestic flows available to absorb that selling.
2015 to 2020: Domestic Investing Expands
Mutual fund participation increased. SIPs became more popular. Digital investing became easier.
A larger share of household savings began moving into financial assets.
Recent Years: Domestic Flows Become a Bigger Counterweight
Monthly SIP contributions that were around ₹3,100 crore in 2016 have risen several times over.
| Period | Approximate Monthly SIP Contributions |
|---|---|
| 2016 | ₹3,100 crore |
| 2019 | ₹8,200 crore |
| 2022 | ₹13,000 crore |
| 2024 onwards | Above ₹20,000 crore |
That does not mean domestic flows prevent market corrections.
Foreign selling can still have a significant effect, particularly on highly liquid large-cap stocks.
But today, domestic mutual funds and individual investors provide a much larger source of demand than they did a decade ago.
This has changed the balance of Indian market participation.
Large Caps vs Midcaps: Why Valuations Can Diverge
The changing flow of money also helps explain why different parts of the market can trade at very different valuations.
Historically, mid-cap companies often traded at lower valuation multiples than large caps because they generally had:
- lower liquidity
- smaller businesses
- greater earnings variability
- higher company-specific risk
In recent years, that relationship has sometimes reversed.
Why Can Midcap Valuations Rise Faster?
- Strong domestic flows: Mid- and small-cap mutual fund categories have attracted significant investor interest.
- Limited public float: Many mid-sized companies have relatively high promoter ownership, leaving fewer shares available for trading.
- Strong demand for domestic-growth themes: Manufacturing, capital goods, infrastructure and other domestically focused sectors contain many mid-sized companies.
When investor demand rises faster than available supply, valuations can expand.
But higher valuations also increase the importance of earnings growth.
Price Correction vs Time Correction
This is why valuation should be considered alongside business growth rather than viewed in isolation.
How Investors Can Approach Muhurat Trading and the New Samvat
Twenty years of data suggests that Muhurat Trading is better treated as a tradition than as a trading strategy.
Keep the Session in Perspective
A one-hour historical pattern should not decide whether an investment is suitable.
If an investor chooses to participate in Muhurat Trading, the underlying investment case should still matter more than the timing of the purchase.
Limit orders can also help control execution prices, particularly in stocks where trading activity is thinner.
Diversify Across Companies and Asset Classes
Different parts of the market perform well at different times.
Large caps may offer greater liquidity and established businesses.
Mid- and small-cap exposure can provide access to faster-growing businesses but can also involve higher volatility and valuation risk.
Gold may behave differently from equities during periods of global stress.
The appropriate mix depends on the investor's goals, time horizon and ability to take risk.
Focus on Regular Investing Rather Than Perfect Timing
Predicting short-term market peaks and bottoms consistently is extremely difficult.
Regular investing allows capital to enter markets across different valuation environments rather than depending entirely on one entry date.
For investors deploying a larger amount, staggering investments can also reduce dependence on a single market level.
Use Samvat as an Annual Portfolio Checkpoint
Diwali can also be a useful reminder to review the broader financial plan.
- Has one asset class become too large in the portfolio?
- Are the companies or funds you own still supported by earnings and fundamentals?
- Has your risk level changed?
- Are your investments still aligned with your financial goals?
- Have your goals, income or upcoming expenses changed?
That review is likely to matter far more than whether the first trade of the Samvat year finishes 0.5% higher or lower.
Conclusion
Muhurat Trading remains one of the most distinctive traditions in Indian financial markets.
It brings together investing, business tradition and the idea of beginning a new financial year on a positive note.
The historical numbers are interesting too.
Muhurat Trading has closed positive more often than negative. Looking beyond the headline indices reveals a recurring market-cap pattern. Gold has outperformed equities across several recent Samvat cycles. And domestic investors have become a much larger force in Indian markets.
But the most important finding may be what the data does not show.
A positive Muhurat session does not reliably predict a positive year ahead.
Long-term wealth is not created by what happens in one special hour.
It depends on the quality of the investments you own, the price you pay, diversification, regular investing and the time those investments are allowed to compound.
So enjoy the tradition.
But let the investment decision stand on its own.
Sources
- NSE Market Pulse, November 2024
- Nifty Indices historical data
- Nifty Indices: launch of Nifty Microcap 250
- Business Standard: Muhurat Trading 2025 market close
- Association of Mutual Funds in India: SIP and mutual fund industry data
