Quick Commerce in India: Capital Is Flowing, But Profits Will Take Time

Over the last few weeks, India’s quick commerce story has thrown up two completely opposite signals.

On one hand, Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa warned that the sector could be heading towards a major churn. On the other, Swiggy’s recent ₹10,000 crore QIP was subscribed nearly 4.5 times by institutional investors.

If capital is still chasing quick commerce so aggressively, why are industry leaders warning of a shakeout? The answer lies somewhere in between.

Swiggy’s QIP: What Investors Are Really Betting On

Last week, Swiggy raised ₹10,000 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The issue saw participation from FPIs, domestic mutual funds, and family offices, indicating strong institutional appetite.

A key detail stood out. Nearly half of the capital raised is expected to be deployed into quick commerce, primarily to scale Instamart.

The pricing carried a modest 4% discount to the floor price, but that wasn’t the real attraction. Investors were buying into the long-term potential of quick commerce - a small but rapidly expanding segment within India’s broader ecommerce landscape.

In simple terms, large pools of capital are trying to secure a meaningful share of a market that is still forming.

Albinder Dhindsa’s Warning: Why a Shakeout Looks Inevitable

Albinder Dhindsa’s caution carries weight. Blinkit is currently the largest quick commerce platform in India, and his warning was blunt.

According to him, quick commerce companies have raised capital aggressively, but there is still limited visibility on:

• when profitability will meaningfully improve, and
• how quickly these businesses can start servicing the capital raised.

The concern is not about growth, but about sustainability. If fundamentals do not improve, investor sentiment can swing rapidly - from enthusiasm to scepticism.

History shows that capital-intensive sectors often go through phases of consolidation once funding becomes more selective.

The Growth Numbers Are Hard to Ignore

Despite scepticism, the growth trajectory of quick commerce in India has been striking.

• Gross Order Value (GOV) grew at a 142% CAGR between FY22 and FY25.
• By FY25, GOV reached ₹64,000 crore.
• Platform revenues rose from ₹450 crore in FY22 to ₹10,500 crore in FY25.
• By FY28, platform revenues are projected to reach ₹35,000 crore.
• GOV is expected to touch ₹2 trillion by FY28.

What was once a side offering has now become a central pillar of ecommerce in urban India.

The drivers are clear: instant gratification, high population density, private labels, and deeper brand partnerships.

Dark Stores: The Backbone of Quick Commerce

Behind the app experience lies the real engine of quick commerce - dark stores.

In just two years, the number of dark stores expanded by 70%, from 1,800 to nearly 3,000.

Scale has brought efficiency. Revenue per dark store has risen by around 25% year-on-year, reflecting better inventory management, higher order density, and round-the-clock optimisation.

The focus is gradually shifting from adding more locations to extracting better economics from existing ones.

A Subtle Shift: Growing Profit Consciousness

One of the most important changes in quick commerce is not visible at first glance.

Retention rates have doubled from 9% in FY22 to 18% in FY25. Fee-based revenues have grown nearly 20-fold in three years and are expected to grow another four times over the next three years.

This indicates a move beyond speed-led growth towards better monetisation. Delivery fees, subscriptions, and private labels are slowly improving unit economics.

Profits may still be some distance away, but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

What Lies Ahead

Quick commerce in India is unlikely to deliver instant profitability. Capital will remain available, but it will be more selective. Not every player will survive.

The sector is likely to consolidate, with long-term winners being those who balance delivery speed, cost efficiency, and repeat usage.

For young, urban, time-constrained India, quick commerce has already become a habit. Turning that habit into a durable, profitable business will take time.

Key Takeaways

• Institutional capital continues to back quick commerce despite near-term losses.
• Industry leaders expect consolidation due to execution and profitability challenges.
• Growth in GOV and revenues has been rapid and sustained.
• Dark stores are driving scale and operational efficiency.
• Profit consciousness is improving, but outcomes will take time.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.