Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Dec 08–Dec 12, 2025)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Below are the key macro, policy, market and corporate developments from Dec 08–Dec 12, 2025, along with their impact analysis to help you stay ahead in a rapidly shifting environment.

1. CPI inflation for November 2025 rises to 0.71% as food prices harden

Impact Analysis

• Despite the uptick, headline inflation remains below 1%, keeping RBI’s reduced inflation projection broadly on track.
• Food inflation stayed negative at -3.91%, but the hardening trend suggests the disinflationary impulse may be fading.

2. US Federal Reserve cuts benchmark rates by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%

Impact Analysis

• This was the third rate cut in 2025, taking total easing since Sep-2024 to 175 bps.
• However, sharp divergence within the FOMC signals rising resistance to further aggressive easing.

3. CME FedWatch sees only two more rate cuts over the next two years

Impact Analysis

• Markets now price one 25-bps cut each in 2025 and 2026, taking rates closer to a 3.00%–3.25% neutral range.
• This suggests limited downside to US rates and a shift toward a prolonged “higher-for-longer” equilibrium.

4. Fed projections show higher GDP growth and lower inflation outlook

Impact Analysis

• Fed expects 2026 GDP growth to be ~50 bps higher, while inflation moderates but stays above the 2% target.
• Policy rates are projected to stabilise near 3%, indicating a new normal rather than a return to ultra-low rates.

5. Rupee weakens sharply to ₹90.69/$ despite Fed rate cut

Impact Analysis

• Strong dollar demand from oil companies and limited RBI intervention kept pressure on the rupee.
• The expected post-Fed-cut relief did not materialise, highlighting structural FX pressures.

6. Mutual funds see net inflows of ₹32,755 crore in November 2025

Impact Analysis

• Equity, hybrid and passive funds saw inflows, while debt funds witnessed outflows of ₹25,693 crore.
• Total MF AUM rose to ₹80.80 trillion, supported by MTM gains and continued retail participation.

7. NFO collections at ₹3,126 crore; SIP flows steady at ₹29,449 crore

Impact Analysis

• SIP folios crossed the 10-crore mark again after the recent clean-up exercise.
• SIP stoppage ratio remains elevated at 75.6%, while contributing SIP folio ratio dipped marginally to 94.1%.

8. Union Cabinet clears Insurance Amendment Bill raising FDI cap to 100%

Impact Analysis

• Higher FDI limit will ease capital raising and attract global insurers to India.
• FDI cap moves from 74% to 100%, though PSU banks remain outside the scope of this reform.

9. Government opens nuclear sector to private companies

Impact Analysis

• The Nuclear Energy Bill ends the monopoly of the Department of Atomic Energy.
• India targets 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047, opening long-term opportunities in clean base-load energy.

10. Silver futures cross ₹2 lakh per kg in India

Impact Analysis

• Post-Fed rate cut, precious metals rallied globally; silver has more than doubled in 2025.
• Silver’s dual role as a safe haven and industrial metal continues to drive strong demand.

11. Indian oil imports from Russia rise 4% to a five-month high

Impact Analysis

• Despite US sanctions pressure, crude imports from Russia hit €2.6 billion in Nov-25.
• Russia now accounts for 35% of India’s crude basket, underscoring India’s focus on energy security.

12. SEBI considers asset disclosure norms for senior officials

Impact Analysis

• Proposed disclosures for CGMs, EDs, WTMs and the chairperson aim to boost transparency.
• While privacy concerns remain, the move could strengthen institutional credibility.

13. India cloud data capacity reaches 1,280 MW; to grow 5× by 2030

Impact Analysis

• AI, ML and rapid digitisation are driving massive data centre expansion.
• Major investments are coming from Google, AWS, Reliance Group and Adani.

14. IndiGo seeks ₹900 crore customs duty refund in Delhi High Court

Impact Analysis

• IndiGo argues that re-imported aircraft parts are service imports and should not attract customs duty.
• Outcome could set an important precedent for the aviation industry.

15. Orkla Ltd looks for inorganic growth post listing

Impact Analysis

• Owner of MTR Foods plans acquisitions of ₹100–200 crore to expand ready-to-eat and quick-delivery offerings.
• India remains a key growth market in Orkla’s global strategy.

16. JSW Energy approves ₹10,000 crore fund-raising plan

Impact Analysis

• Funds to be raised via QIPs, private placements and preferential allotments.
• Capital will support aggressive expansion in renewable and alternate energy projects.

17. Indian bond yields spike over 12 bps despite RBI rate cut

Impact Analysis

• Higher yields forced issuers like PFC and SIDBI to defer bond issuances.
• Markets appear concerned about FY26 fiscal pressures despite policy easing.

18. Meesho lists at 46% premium, validates strong subscription demand

Impact Analysis

• Listed at ₹162.50 vs IPO price of ₹111; touched a high of ₹179.
• Opened with a market cap of over ₹76,000 crore and delivery volumes above 55%.

19. Swiggy’s ₹10,000 crore QIP subscribed 4.5× by institutions

Impact Analysis

• Strong institutional appetite persists despite rising losses in quick commerce.
• QIP priced at ₹375 per share, a 4% discount to the floor price.

20. MF AUM projected to grow 4× to ₹315 trillion by 2035

Impact Analysis

• Bain–Groww report expects 2.5 crore new MF households over the next decade.
• Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities are expected to drive most of the incremental growth.

21. LIC reports another strong month in November 2025

Impact Analysis

• NBP growth driven largely by group policies, though individual policies held up.
• After 100% YoY growth in policies in October, LIC recorded 70% YoY growth in November.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.