Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Jan 05–Jan 09, 2026)

Welcome to the first Weekly Capsule of 2026. Below are the key macroeconomic, market, policy, and corporate developments from Jan 05–Jan 09, 2026, along with concise impact analysis to help you decode the early signals for the new year.

1. First Advance Estimate pegs FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4%

Impact Analysis

• Industry and services outperformed as agriculture lagged; capital formation rose to 7.8% and government consumption also improved.
• H1 momentum suggests resilient growth drivers, even as sectoral divergence persists.

2. Economists flag concerns over low nominal GDP growth at 8.0%

Impact Analysis

• Despite real GDP being 90 bps higher YoY, nominal GDP fell 180 bps due to low inflation.
• Base-year shift to 2022–23 (from Feb-26) may lift real GDP to 7.5% while keeping fiscal deficit target at 4.4%.

3. US unemployment rate for Dec-25 dips to 4.4%

Impact Analysis

• November data was revised lower; strong GDP growth (4.3%) and falling joblessness complicate the Fed’s case for further rate cuts.
• Labour market resilience may delay aggressive easing despite softer inflation.

4. Bharat Coking Coal IPO reopens after hiatus; sees strong response

Impact Analysis

• ₹1,171 crore OFS by Coal India was subscribed over 8× on Day 1.
• BCCL’s role in coking coal mining is strategic for steel and power sectors.

5. FPIs sold $2.5 billion equities in Dec-25; $18.8 billion in CY25

Impact Analysis

• Selling concentrated in BFSI, FMCG, services, autos, and capital goods.
• High valuations, earnings slowdown, trade deal delays, and rupee weakness triggered sustained outflows.

6. Mutual funds witness net outflows of ₹66,591 crore in Dec-25

Impact Analysis

• Debt funds saw heavy outflows due to quarter-end tax management; equity and passive funds recorded inflows.
• Passive fund inflows of ₹26,723 crore highlight shift toward low-cost allocation.

7. Gross SIP inflows hit record ₹31,002 crore in December

Impact Analysis

• SIP stoppage ratio spiked to 85.3%, the highest since May 2025.
• Total SIP folios reached 10.11 crore; SIP AUM touched an all-time high of ₹16.63 trillion.

8. Geopolitical risks resurface as US Navy captures Venezuelan President

Impact Analysis

• Venezuela’s vast oil & gas reserves remain the strategic focal point.
• Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland underscores global scramble for minerals and Arctic routes.

9. Trump threatens 500% import tariffs on Indian goods

Impact Analysis

• Such tariffs could make Indian exports to the US unviable if legislated.
• Passing via Congress instead of executive order raises uncertainty and timelines.

10. Centre confirms Union Budget presentation on 01-Feb

Impact Analysis

• Economic Survey to be tabled on Jan 29; Budget session runs till April 02.
• Markets will focus on fiscal consolidation, capex, and AI/energy incentives.

11. Reliance Jio plans mega IPO, to sell 2.5% stake in 2026

Impact Analysis

• IPO could raise $4 billion, valuing Jio at ~$180 billion - India’s largest listing ever.
• With 50+ crore subscribers, Jio remains the dominant telecom player.

12. India cuts US treasury holdings by 21% in 2025

Impact Analysis

• Holdings fell from $241bn to $191bn as India increased gold reserves.
• Reflects gradual de-dollarisation and diversification of forex reserves.

13. Gold ETF inflows in Dec-25 cross ₹11,640 crore

Impact Analysis

• Total gold ETF AUM crossed ₹1.28 trillion; December inflows tripled MoM.
• Rising prices and geopolitical risk continue to drive demand.

14. Amagi Labs IPO opens Jan 13; price band ₹343–₹361

Impact Analysis

• ₹1,789 crore issue values Amagi at ~₹7,800 crore.
• Cloud video ad-tech story will test investor appetite for tech IPOs.

15. FMCG volumes expected to rise 5% in early 2026

Impact Analysis

• Demand revival supported by macro stability and easing inflation.
• Sector has faced urban slowdown and price-led growth over the past two years.

16. Tata Power to invest ₹6,675 crore in 10 GW solar ingot & wafer plant

Impact Analysis

• Plant in Andhra Pradesh strengthens solar supply chain and semiconductor linkage.
• Supports India’s push toward clean energy and manufacturing self-reliance.

17. Titan eyes leadership in lab-grown diamonds (LGD)

Impact Analysis

• LGD market currently just 2% but poised for growth due to lower prices.
• New beYon brand will be positioned separately from Tanishq and Mia.

18. Proxy advisors back MUFG–Shriram Finance deal

Impact Analysis

• MUFG to invest ₹39,618 crore for 20% stake via preferential issue.
• Despite dilution, advisors cite long-term strategic and governance benefits.

19. UpGrad calls off Unacademy acquisition over valuation gap

Impact Analysis

• Deal collapsed as Unacademy rejected $300 million offer - far below peak valuation.
• Highlights sharp reset in edtech valuations post funding boom.

20. Bajaj Group completes ₹21,390 crore stake buyout from Allianz

Impact Analysis

• Bajaj raises ownership to 97% after Allianz exits 24-year partnership.
• Allianz’s exit follows disagreements over control and governance.

21. RBI raises concerns over Bain Capital–Manappuram deal

Impact Analysis

• RBI flagged dual control risk as Bain already controls another NBFC.
• Gold loan sector dominated by Manappuram, Muthoot and IIFL under regulatory lens.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.