Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Jan 12–Jan 16, 2026)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Here’s a crisp roundup of the key macro, market, policy and corporate developments from Jan 12–Jan 16, 2026, along with impact analysis to help you connect the dots.

1. December 2025 trade deficit edges higher to $25 billion

Impact Analysis

• Exports surprised on the upside at $38.50 billion despite US tariff pressures, putting full-year exports near $850 billion.
• India is actively diversifying trade ties with China, the EU and Latin America even as the Indo–US deal inches closer.

2. Supreme Court rules against Tiger Global in landmark tax judgement

Impact Analysis

• The ruling relates to Tiger Global’s $1.6 billion Flipkart stake sale in 2018 routed via Mauritius.
• SC termed the structure tax avoidance, setting a strong precedent for future offshore deal scrutiny.

3. Indian bond yields spike 4.5 bps to 6.6498%

Impact Analysis

• Sell-off was triggered by passive fund outflows after Bloomberg deferred Indian bond inclusion in its global index.
• Highlights India’s vulnerability to global index-related capital flows.

4. IT majors report profit dip in Q3, but revenues stay strong

Impact Analysis

• TCS, Infosys and HCL Tech saw profit pressure largely due to one-time labour code provisioning.
• Sales growth and AI-led revenues remained strong; Infosys raised CC revenue guidance by 200 bps.

5. WPI inflation rebounds sharply to +0.82% in December

Impact Analysis

• Manufacturing WPI rose from 1.33% to 1.82%, signalling rising input costs.
• Persistent cost pressures could translate into pricing action across sectors.

6. SEBI and NSE signal possible NSE IPO approval by Jan-end

Impact Analysis

• The IPO has been stuck for nearly a decade due to the latency privilege controversy.
• Ironically, BSE has already been listed for 9 years and delivered multi-bagger returns.

7. Government asks quick-commerce firms to drop 10-minute delivery promise

Impact Analysis

• Authorities want safety concerns addressed, even as they remain open to fast delivery as a model.
• Q-commerce firms argue delivery speed is logistics-led, not rider-risk driven.

8. CPI inflation for December rises to 1.33%

Impact Analysis

• Spike driven by protein foods and precious metals in the core basket.
• Despite the rise, FY26 inflation remains benign at ~2.2%.

9. Amagi Media Labs IPO closes with strong 30.22× subscription

Impact Analysis

• HNI/NII led demand at 37.36×, with QIBs subscribing 33.77× post-anchor allocation.
• Strong response reinforces appetite for scalable ad-tech platforms.

10. Shadowfax Technologies IPO opens Jan 20

Impact Analysis

• ₹1,907 crore issue includes ₹1,000 crore fresh issue and ₹907 crore OFS.
• Logistics-tech story will test IPO appetite beyond consumer internet plays.

11. Reliance posts 10% sales growth driven by digital, retail and O2C

Impact Analysis

• Net profit grew modestly at 1.6%, while ARPUs improved to ₹213.70.
• O2C margins benefited from higher fuel cracks; digital gained from better monetisation.

12. CRISIL says Venezuelan oil will only marginally impact crude prices

Impact Analysis

• India’s direct oil trade with Venezuela is minimal.
• Supply normalisation will take time, keeping crude prices soft — positive for India.

13. Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) folios cross 20,000

Impact Analysis

• SIFs sit between MFs and PMS with ₹10 lakh threshold.
• Adoption is early-stage; broader supply will determine long-term traction.

14. Turkey replaces Russia as India’s second-largest oil supplier

Impact Analysis

• Indian refiners cut Russian imports after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil.
• Energy sourcing continues to evolve amid geopolitical constraints.

15. Unacademy to go fully asset-light via franchise model

Impact Analysis

• Owned centres to be converted into franchises, improving ROI and flexibility.
• Focus shifts back to content, tech stack and brand-led growth.

16. Indian power sector to attract ₹4.50 trillion investment by 2032

Impact Analysis

• Capex to span generation, grid, transmission, distribution and storage.
• Renewables and nuclear will see major long-term investments.

17. FY27 fiscal deficit seen at 4.2%; debt-to-GDP at 55.1%

Impact Analysis

• Base year revision to 2022–23 will support improved fiscal metrics.
• Policy narrative now expanding beyond deficit to debt sustainability.

18. Infosys raises FY26 revenue guidance to 3.0%–3.5%

Impact Analysis

• Strong large-deal wins and better execution buoy outlook.
• Q3 revenues beat estimates despite global IT spending caution.

19. Government may raise defence FDI cap to 74% with conditions

Impact Analysis

• Higher FDI will be tied to mandatory technology transfer.
• Defence FDI remains negligible at just $24 million over 25 years.

20. SEBI proposes same-day netting of funds for FPIs

Impact Analysis

• FPIs can use same-day sale proceeds to fund purchases.
• Move improves capital efficiency and trading speed.

21. $40 billion worth of shares to unlock from IPOs by April 2026

Impact Analysis

• Includes Lenskart, Meesho, Wakefit and PhysicsWallah.
• Most unlocked shares are promoter holdings and may not hit the market immediately.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.