Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Sept 22–Sept 26, 2025)

Another packed week of financial updates from across the globe. From India's core sector momentum to key movements in inflation, IPOs, global tensions, and corporate strategies — here’s everything you need to stay informed and ahead.

1. India core sector growth for August 2025 surprises on upside at 6.27%

Impact Analysis

• The surge in core sector growth was driven by steel and coal; supported by a revival in heavyweight refinery products
• In addition, the July core sector growth was revised up by 172 bps, clearly showing the impact of higher government capex

2. Third and final projection of Q2-2025 US-GDP came in at a robust 3.8%

Impact Analysis

• Over the last 3 months, the Q2 US GDP estimates were raised from 3.0% to 3.3% and from 3.3% to 3.8%; a sharp revival
• This comes in the aftermath of GDP contraction in Q1, as most traders front-loaded imports ahead of tariff imposition

3. US August 2025 PCE inflation inches up another 10 basis points to 2.7%

Impact Analysis

• The PCE inflation has gone up from 2.3% to 2.7% between April and August; now a full 70 bps above the Fed target
• While there has been some pick-up in housing, it is the services sector that is still contributing to the price rise

4. Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman give contrary views on rate trajectory

Impact Analysis

• Powell has hinted that the September rate cut may just be a one-off to assuage a market with big rate cut expectations
• However, Michelle Bowman has called for more aggressive rate cuts to pre-empt an employment crisis in the US

5. Tata Capital IPO likely to be open from October 06, 2025 to October 08, 2025

Impact Analysis

• The ₹16,400 crore IPO of Tata Capital values the company at close to $16.5 billion in enterprise value terms
• The IPO will be a mix of a fresh issue and an OFS, with Tata Sons and IFC the major participants in the offer for sale (OFS)

6. SEBI gives a clean chit to Adani; clearing them of most Hindenburg accusations

Impact Analysis

• Over the last 30 months, Hindenburg made serious allegations against Adani group, but could not furnish proof to back up
• SEBI has cleared Adani group of just 2 out of the 22 charges, but the other charges are not really serious in nature

7. Swiggy plans to sell stake in ride hailing app, Rapido, for around ₹2,500 crore

Impact Analysis

• With Rapido also getting into food delivery, Swiggy will sell its stake in Rapido to existing holders, Prosus and Westbridge
• More importantly, it gives the cash comfort to Swiggy, which needs hard cash to focus more on quick commerce vertical

8. Fresh loan rates have started hardening and PSU banks are taking the lead

Impact Analysis

• This is due to the timing mismatch as lending rates have fallen in tandem with repo rate cuts, but deposit rates are still sticky
• With the RBI cutting rates by a full 100 bps and the possibility of more rate cuts, NIMs are a big challenge for the banks

9. HAL bags ₹62,370 crore order for 97 LCA jets from the Indian Air Force (IAF)

Impact Analysis

• The delivery of these 97 LCA jets will commence in 2027-28 and will be completed over the next 6 financial years
• The order will include 68 fighter jets and 29 twin-seaters and the deal will include a series of associated equipment too

10. FMCG companies in India are focusing inorganically on D2C acquisitions

Impact Analysis

• This includes HUL buying Minimalist; Marico buying Satiya Nutraceuticals, and Emami buying Helios Lifestyles
• For the target companies, it is about scale; while for the FMCG companies, it is about a foray into premium segment

11. Lenskart has seen its global bets pay off, with 40% revenues from abroad

Impact Analysis

• A global foray that started in 2019, has expanded to a total of 656 global stores located across Japan, UAE, and Singapore
• On an average, an international store earns nearly twice as much as the average Indian store, justifying the economics

12. According to Maruti, GST cuts have resulted in surge in demand for cars

Impact Analysis

• Maruti disclosed that its car sales had crossed 75,000 since the start of the 9-day Navaratri festival, and post GST cuts
• While the enquiries had nearly doubled, Maruti was clocking close to 18,000 of car sales on a daily basis post the GST cut

13. Government to borrow ₹6.77 trillion in the second half of FY26; well in control

Impact Analysis

• In the first half, the government borrowing was about ₹5,000 crore lower and it will raise ₹10,000 crore via green bonds
• Overall, the full year government borrowing will stand at ₹14.72 trillion, compared to budget target of ₹14.82 trillion

14. JSW Steel gets go-ahead for its ₹20,000 crore acquisition of Bhushan Steels

Impact Analysis

• The Supreme Court, which had earlier rejected the proposal, has overturned its earlier decision, and given a go-ahead
• This will bring an end to a controversy that has been going on for more than 4 years, since the deal was first finalized

15. Analysts see falling exports leading to rising delinquencies by the MSMEs

Impact Analysis

• It is expected that close to 5.5% of overall bank credit is likely to be impacted by the crisis created by steep US tariffs
• According to recent CRIF data, there are already concerns in the lower end loans, especially in the micro-LAP segment

16. Kharif output this year could be hit by the deluge in most parts of India

Impact Analysis

• The problem is especially acute in agri-states like Maharashtra where the damage to crops by inundation has been huge
• A lower-than-expected Kharif would not only hit growth, but even have a negative impact on the food inflation in India

17. Indian pharma exports may get hit if Trump imposes 100% tariffs on Pharma

Impact Analysis

• Trump wants to use these steep tariffs to encourage most US companies to manufacture medicines domestically itself
• The only exception to these tariffs on medicines would be, if the company also set up a manufacturing facility in the US

18. The H1-B visa fiasco is likely to hit the mid-tier IT companies much harder

Impact Analysis

• For the larger IT names, their H1-B usage is already down and they can, anyways apportion part of the spike to their clients
• Analysts pointed out that mid-tier IT companies are not only vulnerable to demand contraction, but also price negotiations

19. KEC International has bagged orders worth ₹3,243 crore in the T&D segment

Impact Analysis

• Most of these are global contracts and the clients are based, either in the US or in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
• The total order book of KEC International stands at ₹11,700 crore, with the latest order being its largest EPC order

20. SEBI and RBI may ease rules for foreign investors to improve capital inflows

Impact Analysis

• In the last few months, risk-off sentiments have led to substantial capital outflows from EMs, especially India
• Some of the measures include; easier onboarding, cutting registration time, streamlining KYC, and lower scrutiny

21. CRISIL expects private sector defence order book to cross ₹55,000 crore

Impact Analysis

• The big triggers have been strong domestic demand, greater focus on R&D, and government backed manufacturing policies
• Private sector defence businesses are likely to witness 16-18% growth in top line with operating margins at 18-19%

What should you do now?

Stay mindful of inflation trends (both in India and globally), rising gold prices, and upcoming IPOs like Tata Capital and Lenskart. These developments could influence your portfolio allocation, tax planning, and hedging strategies in the coming weeks.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.