Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Feb 16–Feb 20, 2026)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. From diverging central bank signals to AI capex bets, oil geopolitics, and IPO overhang risks, here’s a structured breakdown of the key developments from Feb 16–Feb 20, 2026 - and what they could mean for markets and your portfolio.

1. US Fed minutes hint at wide divergence in future rate trajectory

Impact Analysis

• The Fed’s tone has clearly shifted from growth support to inflation control.
• CME Fedwatch now anticipates a maximum of two 25-bps cuts till end-2027, indicating a prolonged higher-rate regime.

2. RBI MPC minutes reflect macro confidence in growth & inflation

Impact Analysis

• Consensus view suggests growth resilience and inflation (excluding precious metals) under control.
• Status quo allows the earlier 125 bps cumulative cuts to fully transmit into the lending ecosystem.

3. MPC member Ram Singh pushes for accommodative stance

Impact Analysis

• Prof. Ram Singh argues accommodative stance would accelerate rate transmission.
• Lower stance could also ease bond yields, currently pressured by elevated borrowings.

4. India’s Russian oil imports may hit 40-month low in March 2026

Impact Analysis

• Imports already down to 13 lakh bpd in February; may drop to 8 lakh bpd in March.
• Shift away from Russia may increase India’s crude procurement cost.

5. FPIs net buy $2.17 bn equities till Feb-15 despite IT selloff

Impact Analysis

• IT sector saw $1.21 bn selling amid Anthropic AI-related fears.
• Strong buying in capital goods, BFSI and oil & gas offset IT weakness.

6. Gold loan companies face margin compression

Impact Analysis

• Spreads narrowed by 2–3% due to heightened competition.
• Some players have restricted early loan closures to defend profitability.

7. ₹53,000 crore worth of pre-listing shares to hit markets

Impact Analysis

• Supply from pre-IPO placements and anchor allocations may create near-term pressure.
• Overhang expected in names like Vikram Solar, Jaro, Regaal Resources, and others.

8. Michael Burry shorts Palantir with $912 mn notional bet

Impact Analysis

• Position includes ~5 million put options; signals skepticism on AI stock valuations.
• Burry expects up to 70% correction from current levels.

9. India’s Jan-26 merchandise trade deficit at $34.68 bn

Impact Analysis

• Gold imports surged to $12.07 bn; US export demand remained weak.
• Services exports grew 26.3% to $43.9 bn, cushioning overall current account impact.

10. Morgan Stanley sees 28% upside in Reliance Industries

Impact Analysis

• RIL plans ₹10 trillion AI and digital infrastructure capex over 7 years.
• Broker expects improved economics versus past telecom and retail bets.

11. Tata Electronics partners Qualcomm for automotive modules

Impact Analysis

• Manufacturing Snapdragon Digital Chassis modules at Assam facility.
• Boosts India’s electronics manufacturing and automotive chip ecosystem.

12. SEBI issues show-cause notice to Zee Group

Impact Analysis

• Allegations linked to fund diversion first raised in 2019.
• Regulatory scrutiny may continue to weigh on sentiment.

13. Jan-26 core sector growth slows to 4.0%

Impact Analysis

• Steel and cement driven by infra spending remain key contributors.
• Hydrocarbon segments contracted, weighing on aggregate growth.

14. Chrysalis consortium to acquire Novartis India stake

Impact Analysis

• Parent Novartis AG exits with 70.68% stake sale; followed by open offer.
• Consortium stake to rise to 96.68%, indicating strategic shift.

15. Government disburses ₹28,728 crore under PLI schemes

Impact Analysis

• Out of total ₹1.97 lakh crore allocation; 14 sectors covered so far.
• Scheme catalysed ₹2.16 trillion investment and 14.39 lakh jobs.

16. India–US trade deal expected operational by April 2026

Impact Analysis

• 25% Russia-linked tariff removed; balance tariff to be reduced gradually.
• High-level bilateral visits scheduled through February and March.

17. Yotta to deploy $2 bn NVIDIA chips for AI hub

Impact Analysis

• Blackwell Ultra GPUs to power GW-scale data centre infrastructure.
• Additional $1 bn multi-year contract commitments signal scale ambition.

18. Auto majors prepare ₹1 lakh crore capex expansion

Impact Analysis

• Lower GST rates encouraging aggressive capacity additions.
• Tata, Maruti, and M&M leading expansion cycle.

19. NVIDIA partners AI Grants India to support 500 startups

Impact Analysis

• Access to AI tools and ecosystem support for 10,000 founders.
• Strengthens India’s early-stage AI innovation pipeline.

20. Brent crude rises to $71.46/bbl amid geopolitical tension

Impact Analysis

• US–Iran tensions raise risks to Strait of Hormuz supply flows.
• Hormuz handles ~30% of global energy shipments; blockade fears elevate risk premium.

21. DOT directs Adani to allow telecom network access at Navi Mumbai

Impact Analysis

• Right of Way provisions mandate equal network deployment access.
• Ensures competitive telecom presence at major infrastructure hubs.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.