Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Oct 20–Oct 24, 2025)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Below are the top headlines from Oct 20–Oct 24, 2025, with concise impact analysis to help you understand what these developments could mean for markets, policy, and your portfolio.

1. Spot gold corrects sharply in the global market amid profit booking at peak levels

Impact Analysis

• The correction may not be too deep as structural drivers like de-dollarization and central bank buying remain intact.
• Some weakness reflects hopes of a US–China deal; still, the -8.8% point-to-point correction has caused short-term pain for momentum traders.

2. Oil refiners deny government directive to reduce Russian oil purchases

Impact Analysis

• Decisions on buying Russian oil will continue to be driven by commercial considerations of cost and availability rather than a strict directive.
• The US reportedly tried to pressure India to cut Russian purchases in exchange for tariff relief - geopolitics continues to shape energy trade flows.

3. SEBI bars mutual funds from investing in pre-IPO placement of shares

Impact Analysis

• Domestic mutual funds are now restricted to the anchor route and the regular QIB route for IPO investments.
• Legal concerns over mutual funds holding unlisted shares - especially where an IPO may be cancelled - likely motivated the move.

4. Orkla India IPO to open for subscription on 29-October (₹1,667 crore issue)

Impact Analysis

• Orkla India - holding company of brands like MTR Foods and Eastern Spices - will sell 228 lakh shares via OFS, led by existing promoters.
• Investors will watch brand monetisation and valuation, given Orkla’s strong consumer portfolio in India.

5. US CPI inflation for September 2025 comes in at 3.0%

Impact Analysis

• Headline inflation edged up from 2.9% to 3.0%; the print was delayed due to the US government shutdown.
• A slightly higher inflation print could make the Fed more cautious about aggressive rate cuts in the near term.

6. RBI forex reserves cross $700 billion, with rising share of gold

Impact Analysis

• Between 2022–2025 the share of gold in reserves has doubled to ~13.6% via accumulation and accretion.
• Emerging markets such as China, India, and Turkey are adding gold to reserves as a hedge against dollar risks.

7. Remaining 10 weeks of 2025 likely to see IPOs of ~₹41,000 crore

Impact Analysis

• High-profile IPOs likely include Groww, Lenskart, and PhysicsWallah - contributing to a potential record year for listings.
• With ~₹1,10,000 crore raised already, India could end 2025 with IPO flows exceeding ₹1.50 trillion.

8. Finance Minister promises simplified GST registration from 01-November

Impact Analysis

• Simpler GST registration and process changes may bring more small traders into the formal GST net voluntarily.
• Greater compliance could expand the tax base, but effective implementation will determine the outcome.

9. SBI Life reports 7% fall in net profits for Q2FY26 at ₹495 crore

Impact Analysis

• Premium flows were offset by higher operating costs and increased commission payouts during the quarter.
• Insurers continue to face headwinds after the scrapping of GST on life insurance premiums, which removed input tax credit benefits.

10. India saw 11,223 startups wind down in 2025 - 30% higher YoY

Impact Analysis

• Most closures were in internet-first brands, healthcare booking platforms, and investment tech - reflecting investor retrenchment.
• With two months remaining in the year, 2025 is on track to see materially higher startup closures than 2024.

11. Federal Bank approves ₹6,196 crore preferential issue to Blackstone

Impact Analysis

• 27.29 crore warrants priced at ₹227 (1:1 ratio) will give Blackstone a 9.99% stake on full conversion within 18 months.
• Capital infusion provides strategic backing and balance-sheet support for Federal Bank’s growth plans.

12. Maruti Suzuki sees market share fall below 40% for the first time

Impact Analysis

• Maruti lost share particularly in small and compact cars as consumers shifted towards premium models.
• Competition from Tata Motors and M&M has eaten into Maruti’s wallet share, forcing strategic product rethinking.

13. Defence Acquisition Council clears procurements worth ₹79,300 crore

Impact Analysis

• Orders include ammunition and equipment for the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Coast Guard - a boost for defence OEMs.
• Large order books will support capex and revenue visibility for Indian defence companies.

14. Tata Sons IPO off the table as Tata Trust factions agree on status quo

Impact Analysis

• Shapoorji Pallonji Group’s pressure to list Tata Sons for debt monetisation has eased as both trust factions opted for the status quo.
• SP Group’s monetisation plans may now be delayed, affecting broader market expectations around a marquee listing.

15. Reliance Retail adds 600+ dark stores in Q2, doubling down on quick commerce

Impact Analysis

• Reliance uses dark stores to complement physical stores; quick commerce orders have grown ~200% YoY.
• Dark stores help scale last-mile fulfilment and support omni-channel growth for Reliance Retail.

16. September core sector growth eased to 3.0%

Impact Analysis

• Refinery products were the primary drag; steel and cement led growth supported by infrastructure demand.
• Core growth moderation may weigh on near-term industrial momentum but infrastructure capex remains supportive.

17. I-Sec pegs Jio Platforms valuation at $148 billion by 2027

Impact Analysis

• If accurate, this valuation would exceed the 2021 fundraise valuation by more than two-fold.
• With a potential IPO in H1 2026, valuation discovery will depend on market conditions and execution.

18. Rural India sees faster growth in spending power compared to urban India

Impact Analysis

• Monthly per-capita spending in rural India has more than tripled from 2012 to 2024; spending is shifting from food to aspirational categories.
• Stronger rural consumption supports FMCG, apparel, and discretionary demand outside urban metros.

19. RBL Bank likely to sell 60% stake to Emirates NBD for ₹26,850 crore

Impact Analysis

• A strategic partner with a deep balance sheet would shore up RBL Bank’s capital adequacy and provide stability amid controversies.
• Capital infusion and governance changes could reposition RBL to compete more effectively.

20. Indian CDMO stocks could benefit from rising US–China trade tensions

Impact Analysis

• China’s centrality in CDMO supply chains means trade tensions open opportunities for Indian CDMOs to capture business.
• The US BioSecure Act and security restrictions may further redirect CDMO orders away from Chinese firms.

21. Indian government may face ₹1,29,000 crore loss on SGB redemptions

Impact Analysis

• Estimated loss includes redemption price difference, interest already paid/to be paid, and loss of LTCG tax - assuming gold prices don’t surge further.
• Large SGB liabilities could strain government finances if redemptions continue to rise with elevated gold levels.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.