Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Oct 13–Oct 17, 2025)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Below are the top headlines from Oct 13–Oct 17, 2025, with concise impact analysis to help you understand what these developments could mean for markets, policy, and your portfolio.

1. RBI MPC minutes open up the gates for more rate cuts in 2025 and in 2026

Impact Analysis

• All six members of the RBI MPC noted that structurally low inflation supports the case for further rate cuts.
• There was also caution: volatile global macros mean RBI may want to reserve ammunition and proceed carefully.

2. Google and TCS commit to invest $22 billion into India AI infrastructure

Impact Analysis

• Google plans close to $15 billion over the next 10 years to set up a gigawatt-scale data centre in Vizag.
• TCS will invest about $7 billion to build a network of data centres focused on AI and sovereign data - a major boost to India’s AI infrastructure and cloud ecosystem.

3. AI has just picked its latest victim; the employees of Nestle worldwide

Impact Analysis

• Nestle plans to lay off nearly 16,000 employees across white-collar jobs and supply chain - ~6% of total staff.
• While results were decent, this signals preparations for broader automation and AI application in routine activities at Nestle.

4. Zepto to raise $450 million from investors at $7 billion overall valuation

Impact Analysis

• Remarkable given Zepto’s recent dark-store controversies; valuation is ~40% higher year-on-year.
• Zepto sits on ~$900 million cash but needs deep pockets to aggressively compete with Blinkit and Instamart in quick commerce.

5. India trade deficit spiked to $32.15 billion in September 2025

Impact Analysis

• Spike occurred despite higher exports - a sharp surge in imports (led by gold) drove the deficit.
• This is the highest merchandise trade deficit in 11 months, last higher in Nov 2024 when it crossed $37 billion.

6. Services exports for September 2025 lower on YoY basis and sequentially

Impact Analysis

• Tariffs on goods and H1-B visa restrictions appear to have hit IT revenues in the month.
• Raises questions on whether CAD can be contained under 1% of GDP for full-year FY26.

7. RBI warns of speculative attacks on the rupee in the offshore rupee market

Impact Analysis

• RBI reportedly sold ~$5 billion to ease pressure on the rupee - a surprise move that underscores intervention readiness.
• Offshore rupee markets (Singapore, Dubai) remain active and are hard for RBI to fully control, increasing FX volatility risks.

8. Consumer (CPI) inflation touches a 99-month low for Sep-25

Impact Analysis

• CPI at 1.54% in September - well below Reuters consensus of 1.70% - reflecting weak food and fuel inflation.
• Core inflation still poses a pressure point and will shape the pace and timing of future rate cuts.

9. There was an all-out rally in gold and silver during the week amid uncertainty

Impact Analysis

• Gold rallied to $4,330/oz and silver to $54/oz - a ~7–8% weekly move amid risk aversion.
• Gold's momentum was reinforced after Goldman Sachs upgraded its target to $4,900/oz, supporting further safe-haven flows.

10. N Chandrasekharan gets a third term, but Tata Trusts feud gets sharper

Impact Analysis

• N Chandrasekharan was awarded a third 5-year term as chairperson & CEO of Tata Sons despite being over 65.
• The bigger story is the governance rift within Tata Trusts, with Mehli Mistry stirring dissension among trustees - succession and governance clarity are now critical.

11. Life insurers demand amortization of distribution costs post-GST removal

Impact Analysis

• GST removal on premiums means insurers lose input tax credit (ITC) on costs, squeezing near-term profits.
• Amortization of distribution costs is being sought to spread the impact and protect quarterly earnings.

12. Piramal Finance to list post-merger in the first half of November 2025

Impact Analysis

• Following NCLT approval, Piramal Enterprises merged into Piramal Finance and ceased trading; the combined entity will list soon.
• Market watchers will watch listing dynamics and valuation discovery for the merged financial services play.

13. Data centre firm Sify Infinit Spaces filed DRHP for ₹3,700 crore IPO

Impact Analysis

• IPO comprises a ₹2,500 crore fresh issue plus ₹1,200 crore OFS by early shareholders.
• Kotak (an early backer) will exit via OFS while fresh proceeds will be used to pare debt and fund expansion.

14. Hyundai India has lined up a mega ₹45,000 crore India expansion plan

Impact Analysis

• Hyundai aims to reclaim its position in the Indian auto pecking order with a plan through 2030 covering 26 models across ICE, EVs and hybrids.
• Significant capex and product launches could reshape competitive dynamics and supply chains in India’s auto market.

15. JSW Steel recorded 307% growth in net profits at ₹1,646 crore in Q2FY26

Impact Analysis

• Highest ever crude steel production at 7.90 million tonnes (up 17% YoY) aided strong earnings.
• Revenues rose 14% YoY to ₹45,152 crore; current year capex is estimated at ~₹20,000 crore.

16. Coca-Cola India is planning a $1 billion India IPO at $10 billion overall valuation

Impact Analysis

• Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages is engaging bankers to gauge appetite and valuations for an India IPO.
• If executed, it will join other global MNC monetizations in India and attract considerable investor interest.

17. S&P fears that tariffs could cost the US consumer nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025

Impact Analysis

• S&P estimates most of the tariff cost will be passed to consumers via higher prices; only about one-third will be absorbed by businesses.
• Tariff-driven inflation could weigh on consumption and corporate margins in affected sectors.

18. Indian tax authorities raid proprietary trading firm, Graviton Research

Impact Analysis

• Authorities are scrutinizing trade size, taxes paid, and potential crypto investments - signalling tighter oversight of prop-traders.
• Follows earlier regulatory actions (e.g., Jane Street), and may lead to increased compliance scrutiny across trading firms.

19. Fed’s Powell and Kashkari hint at higher risk of unemployment than inflation

Impact Analysis

• Comments align with CME FedWatch expectations of ~2 more rate cuts in 2025 and signal the Fed’s tolerance for higher jobless risk to fight inflation.
• Weak payroll additions suggest labor market slack could increase - a key input for Fed policy path and risk assets.

20. India increases Russian oil purchases in October after dip in September quarter

Impact Analysis

• KPLER data shows Russian oil imports spiked in October due to deeper discounts and weak Western demand.
• India frames purchases as energy security and consumer price management - an important lever for domestic inflation control.

21. Series III 2017-18 Sovereign Gold Bonds give 338% returns to investors

Impact Analysis

• Purchase price in Oct 2017 was ₹2,866/gram; redemption price is ₹12,567/gram - a ~338% nominal return.
• Large SGB redemptions are an open liability for the government and could stress finances further if gold prices rise materially.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.