Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Nov 24–Nov 28, 2025)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Below are the top headlines from Nov 24–Nov 28, 2025, with concise impact analysis to help you understand what these developments could mean for markets, policy, and your portfolio.

1. India real GDP growth for Q2FY26 surprised on the upside at 8.2%

Impact Analysis

• Nominal growth was 8.7%, signalling that low inflation contributed meaningfully to strong real GDP growth.
• With Q1 at 7.8%, H1FY26 annualised real growth is ~8.0% - a solid start that bolsters growth narrative despite sectoral divergence.

2. Primary GDP growth was tepid, while secondary sector looks stronger

Impact Analysis

• Nominal agricultural growth fell to ~1.5% due to Kharif disruptions; negative agri inflation helped lift real GDP numbers.
• Manufacturing showed smart gains thanks to better capacity utilisation, supporting industrial momentum.

3. Services sector remains buoyant with Q2 growth at 9.2%

Impact Analysis

• Finance, realty, trade and hospitality led services rebound - underscoring resilience in domestic demand for services.
• Nominal and real GDP/GVA were largely aligned, indicating limited one-off effects from indirect taxes or subsidies.

4. India fiscal update: fiscal deficit at 52.6% of full-year target as of Oct-25

Impact Analysis

• Absolute fiscal deficit rose 44% in October due to tepid revenue growth and timing effects from advance tax and refunds.
• Raises questions on meeting the 4.4% of GDP target - heavy capex push may result in some fiscal slippage.

5. Progress on fiscal deficit casts doubt on the 4.4% FY26 target

Impact Analysis

• Government appears willing to prioritise growth via capex even if it means higher fiscal outturn.
• Markets will watch bond markets and RBI stance closely for any fiscal-financing pressure signals.

6. Kevin Hassett tipped as potential next Fed chair - markets cautious

Impact Analysis

• Hassett’s perceived dovish tilt and pro-rate-cut stance could weaken the dollar if adopted, sparking FX repricing.
• Concerns exist about potential political encroachment on Fed independence, which markets dislike.

7. RBI to release Balance of Payments data monthly

Impact Analysis

• Monthly BOP data will improve timeliness and enable better analytical tracking of external flows.
• More frequent data increases transparency but may also expose short-term volatility more clearly.

8. JP Morgan sees India CDMO market doubling to $15bn by 2029

Impact Analysis

• CDMO market on a ~17% revenue CAGR; India stands to gain from China+1 re-shoring and cost advantages.
• Opportunity for domestic CDMOs to capture higher-value contracts as global supply chains diversify.

9. India plans major expansion of trade ties with Canada and UAE

Impact Analysis

• Targets: Canada to $50bn and UAE to $100bn by 2029 - strategic diversification beyond the US market.
• Stronger bilateral links could mitigate geopolitical trade risks and open new export avenues.

10. RBI governor hints at a possible 25-bps rate cut in December MPC

Impact Analysis

• Surprising guidance that opens the door for easing, though markets worry about USDINR moving beyond ₹90/$ if cuts are premature.
• RBI will need to balance growth support with FX and inflation considerations when timing cuts.

11. US court orders Byju Raveendran to pay $1.16 billion over alleged round-tripping

Impact Analysis

• GLAS Trust allegations of ~$533m round-tripping persist; Byju’s denies wrongdoing but legal costs and reputational damage mount.
• Major judgement risks further constrain options for the founder and complicate restructuring / fundraising efforts.

12. Brent crude inches closer to $60/bbl amid mixed supply-demand signals

Impact Analysis

• Oil weakness driven by softened demand outlook and delayed Ukraine peace talks; supply-side OPEC moves remain a wildcard.
• Lower crude helps domestic inflation but can pressure energy-sector revenues and upstream capex plans.

13. Meesho finalises IPO terms: ₹5,421 crore issue with band ₹105–₹111

Impact Analysis

• Indicative enterprise valuation ~₹50,096 crore; IPO split includes ₹4,250 crore fresh issue and ₹1,171 crore OFS.
• Listing will test investor appetite for e-commerce growth stories amid mixed recent IPO performance.

14. Airbus recalls nearly 6,000 A320 aircraft - global schedule disruptions

Impact Analysis

• Huge schedule disruption as solar-flare linked data issues forced safety recall and operational pauses.
• Travel disruption impacts airlines’ revenues and may pressure ancillary sectors like MRO and insurance.

15. Adani to invest nearly $5 billion in Google data centres in India

Impact Analysis

• Adani’s planned investment into AI/data-centre infrastructure complements big-tech moves and adds local execution muscle.
• Billion-dollar projects deepen India’s data centre ecosystem and create ancillary capex and jobs pipelines.

16. CRISIL & AMFI design market-making framework for sub-AAA bonds

Impact Analysis

• Market-making aims to address liquidity issues in non-AAA bond segments via inventory and spread management with safeguards.
• Improved liquidity could lower borrowing costs for issuers and broaden investor participation in credit markets.

17. PE/VC investments in Oct-25 rose 9% MoM to $5.3 billion

Impact Analysis

• Financial services and fintech led with $2.9bn; ecommerce contributed ~$715m across 102 deals.
• Momentum indicates investor interest returning to fintech and digital economy themes despite macro uncertainty.

18. Indian FMCG companies report higher revenues but shrinking volumes

Impact Analysis

• Revenue growth (~6%) driven mainly by price increases; volume growth remained subdued (~2%) in Q2FY26.
• Companies face the challenge of retaining customers while managing price-led revenue expansion.

19. Deendayal Port scales to 100 million tonnes - fastest to the milestone in FY26

Impact Analysis

• Deendayal (Kandla) hit 100MT in October, up 6.78% YoY - strong operational efficiency and cargo handling improvements.
• Port throughput gains support trade logistics and reduce turnaround times for import-export flows.

20. ICICI Prudential AMC to launch IPO in second week of Dec-25

Impact Analysis

• OFS-based listing to hive off ~10% stake at an implied ~$12bn valuation; AMCs continue to monetise strong market multiples.
• Investor appetite for asset-manager listings remains healthy given past post-listing performance of peers.

21. IMF pushes out India’s $5 trillion GDP timeline to FY29

Impact Analysis

• Delay from FY28 to FY29 due to slower nominal GDP growth and currency weakness - a reflection of near-term macro headwinds.
• Targets now hinge on reviving nominal growth via investment, exports, and currency stability.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.