Finnovate Weekly Capsule (June 16 - June 20, 2025)

A lot happened this week across the macroeconomic landscape, capital markets, IPO scene, and policy corridors. From monetary policy commentary to upcoming mega IPOs, and global funding news to sector-specific disruptions - here’s your concise wrap-up of the financial developments that matter.

RBI MPC Minutes Emphasize Inflation and Global Macro Risks

Impact Analysis:

• The RBI had cut repo rate by 50 bps and CRR by 100 bps in its recent meeting.
• One member had preferred a smaller cut (25 bps), but all six agreed on the accommodative stance.
• The minutes reflect inflation control as the primary concern, with an eye on global spillovers.

Core Sector Grows Just 0.71% in May 2025

Impact Analysis:

• Cement, steel, and coal output showed some rebound thanks to construction demand.
• Refinery products emerged as the biggest driver with a 28.03% weight in the index.
• Four of the eight core sectors still posted negative growth.

Rupee Touches 3-Month Low at ₹86.89/$

Impact Analysis:

• The fall happened despite the US Dollar Index staying below 99.
• The weakness was driven by sustained importer demand for dollars.
• Hedging activity ahead of global uncertainty likely added pressure.

Brent Crude Climbs Above $77 on Middle East Tensions

Impact Analysis:

• Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate, raising fears of US entry into the war.
• Brent surged from $57 in early May to $77 by week’s end.
• Concerns are centered around potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

India’s Merchandise Trade Deficit Narrows to $21.88 Billion

Impact Analysis:

• A result of lower imports and flat exports, following earlier front-loading in April.
• The combined goods and services deficit is still up 13% year-on-year.
• Trade pressures remain despite marginal monthly improvement.

HDB Financial to Launch ₹12,500 Crore IPO Next Week

Impact Analysis:

• Includes a ₹2,500 crore fresh issue and a ₹10,000 crore OFS by HDFC Bank.
• Anchor book opens a day prior to IPO.
• This is set to be one of the biggest IPOs in recent times.

PM Modi Asserts India Needs No US Mediation on Pakistan

Impact Analysis:

• Modi’s remarks at the G-7 directly counter Trump’s past mediation claims.
• India reiterated its long-standing policy of no third-party involvement.
• Diplomatically, this reassertion strengthens India’s position globally.

Trent and BEL to Get $708 Million in Passive Inflows on Sensex Inclusion

Impact Analysis:

• Replace IndusInd Bank and Nestle India in Sensex.
• Trent gets $330 million inflow, BEL gets $378 million.
• IndusInd and Nestle set to face combined outflows of $375 million.

Makemytrip.com Raises $3.10 Billion-Biggest APAC Deal Since 2022

Impact Analysis:

• Raised via equity and zero-coupon convertibles with a 35% premium.
• Trip.com stake falls below 20% post-dilution.
• Fresh capital likely fuels growth plans and strategic acquisitions.

Government May Ease Board Rules for Foreign Insurers

Impact Analysis:

• Aims to attract more FDI by allowing non-resident KMPs.
• Tied to the plan to raise FDI cap in insurance to 100%.
• Designed to enhance competitiveness and inflows in the insurance space.

₹15,800 Crore Worth of IPOs Set to Hit Market Next Week

Impact Analysis:

• Includes HDB Financial and Kalpataru Estates IPOs.
• 8 mainboard IPOs and 7 SME IPOs lined up.
• Reflects bullish investor sentiment despite macro concerns.

Lilavati Trust Files ₹1,000 Crore Defamation Suit Against HDFC Bank CEO

Impact Analysis:

• Targeted at CEO Sasidhar Jagdishan for alleged financial misconduct and defamation.
• Co-accused Chetan Mehta was already convicted in Dubai.
• Could have reputational impact on HDFC Bank.

Tata Sons Chair Flags Disruptions in Auto Sector

Impact Analysis:

• Warns of risks from war, tariffs, and rare earth material shortages.
• Points to China's dominance in rare earth supply as a key bottleneck.
• Long-term policy responses may be needed for auto resilience.

SEBI Greenlights Promoter-Friendly ESOP Retention Post-IPO

Impact Analysis:

• Previously, promoters couldn’t retain ESOPs post listing.
• New norms allow retention, aligning founders’ incentives post-IPO.
• Aims to improve long-term performance of newly listed companies.

Gold Now Second-Largest Reserve Asset Among Central Banks

Impact Analysis:

• Accounts for 20% of global central bank reserves, after USD (46%).
• Euro now trails at 16%.
• Central bank gold buying has crossed 1,000 tonnes annually for 3 straight years.

Dayanidhi Maran Challenges Brother Kalanidhi Over Sun TV

Impact Analysis:

• A family feud over succession post the founder’s death.
• Involves control over one of India’s largest media houses.
• Could trigger corporate governance concerns.

Reliance to Invest ₹8,000 Crore in Soft Drink Business

Impact Analysis:

• Campa Cola revival finds traction in the domestic market.
• Prices undercut major players like Coca-Cola and Pepsi by 20–40%.
• Signals Reliance’s aggressive push into FMCG sector.

Morgan Stanley Estimates India’s FY26 Fiscal Deficit at 7% of GDP

Impact Analysis:

• 4.4% attributed to Centre, 2.6% to states.
• Aligned with government targets.
• Fiscal room remains tight amid election-linked spending pressures.

Hero Fincorp Raises ₹260 Crore via Pre-IPO Placement

Impact Analysis:

• Issued at ₹1,400/share; valuation at ₹23,200 crore.
• Will reduce IPO fresh issue size from ₹2,100 crore to ₹1,840 crore.
• Strong investor interest pre-IPO shows confidence in business.

WPI Inflation Falls to 0.39% for May 2025

Impact Analysis:

• Primary, fuel, and manufacturing inflation remain subdued.
• Matches CPI trend, reinforcing disinflation narrative.
• Positive for manufacturing margins and rate cut prospects.

RBI Eases Project Finance Norms to Spur Private Investment

Impact Analysis:

• Reduces provisioning for under-construction projects from 5% to 1%.
• New norms effective October 2025.
• Likely to unclog long-pending infrastructure projects and boost capex.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.