Finnovate Weekly Capsule (July 28–Aug 01, 2025)

This week, the financial world witnessed several high-impact developments – from major IPOs and government policy signals to inflation updates and corporate performance. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the key events and what they mean for the Indian economy, markets, and investors.

1. India June IIP growth at an 11-month low of 1.5%; electricity contracts sharply

Impact Analysis

• However, May IIP was revised upward by 64 bps from 1.23% to 1.87%, offering some hope.
• Manufacturing grew 3.2% year-on-year, but mining and electricity output declined in June.

2. CGA reported fiscal deficit at 17.9% of full year target as of end June 2025

Impact Analysis

• India added ₹2.69 trillion to the fiscal deficit in June due to a spike in revenue expenditure.
• Defence and capex pressure may challenge the 4.4% FY26 fiscal deficit target.

3. Fed July meeting holds status quo on rates, despite 2 dissenting votes

Impact Analysis

• Despite dissenting voices for rate cuts, the Fed chose to hold rates.
• Fed Chair Powell highlighted inflation risks from tariffs despite strong GDP.

4. The US Q2 GDP growth bounced back to positive at 3.0% as per first estimate

Impact Analysis

• Rebound from -0.5% in Q1 was due to front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs.
• Supports Powell's view that Q1 GDP dip was an anomaly.

5. PCE inflation for June 2025 bounces by 20 bps to 2.6%, core inflation at 2.8%

Impact Analysis

• Headline PCE inflation rose 40 bps over two months due to tariff impact.
• Consumer spending rose in June, indicating strong demand.

6. The IPO of NSDL got subscribed 41.01 times at the close on August 01, 2025

Impact Analysis

• QIB portion saw 103.97x subscription; HNI/NII 34.98x.
• Against an offer of 351.27 lakh shares, total demand hit 14,403.92 lakh shares.

7. Trump gets tough; imposes 25% tariff on Indian goods plus Russia penalties

Impact Analysis

• The move questions US-India trade ties
• Tariffs could severely dent Indian export competitiveness.

8. For July 2025, India GST collections stood at ₹1.96 trillion, 7.5% higher yoy

Impact Analysis

• Indicates robust economic activity; FY26 GDP likely at 6.5%
• Net GST collections remain a metric to watch.

9. With the RBI August policy coming up next week, rates are likely to be on hold

Impact Analysis

• 90% of economists expect no change in rates.
• RBI is likely to stay cautious post-Fed stance and due to tariff-linked inflation.

10. July unemployment rate in the US saw a small spike from 4.1% to 4.2%

Impact Analysis

• Non-farm payrolls at 73,000 were below GDP-sustaining threshold.
• Potential link to retaliatory tariffs, though GDP remained strong.

11. The CBDT has complained that Jane Street was not cooperating in probe

Impact Analysis

• Overseas data storage made regulatory access difficult.
• Jane Street had deposited ₹4,840 crore in escrow for India trading.

12. Fidelity and Goldman bullish on gold; Citi expects gold below $3,000/oz

Impact Analysis

• Bullish sentiment due to deficit, weak USD, and macro risks.
• Citi projects fall if trade deals materialize and gold corrects naturally.

13. Quant MF to launch India’s first long-short Specialized Investment Fund (SIF)

Impact Analysis

• Positioned between retail MFs and PMS; offers more strategy flexibility.
• Minimum investment: ₹10 lakhs; long and short positions allowed.

14. IDBI Bank sale likely to happen by March 2026, with financial bids by Q3

Impact Analysis

• GOI and LIC to sell 60.72% stake; due diligence and approvals in progress.
• Will aid FY26 disinvestment goals alongside LIC and PSU stake sales.

15. ITC Ltd reported 3% growth in net profits at ₹5,244 crore for Q1FY26

Impact Analysis

• Non-cigarette segments like FMCG and paper faced cost pressures.
• Revenue rose 19.5% YoY to ₹23,129 crore; cigarettes contributed 41%.

16. Indian pharma exports have been exempted from the 25% tariff ambit

Impact Analysis

• Includes formulations and APIs, critical for US healthcare.
• India exports $8.73B pharma goods to US (31% of total pharma exports).

17. L&T Q1FY26 results were all about new businesses and Middle East markets

Impact Analysis

• Strong focus on green infra and renewables.
• 52% of new orders came from abroad, majorly the Middle East.

18. Maruti Suzuki reported flat net profits at ₹3,792 crore, 7.9% higher sales

Impact Analysis

• Q1 revenues at ₹38,605 crore driven by exports and price hikes.
• Urban demand stayed weak; input cost pressures persisted.

19. Schneider buys out Temasek stake in India unit for a sum of €5.5 billion

Impact Analysis

• Plans 3x capacity expansion and India-centric R&D.
• Deal pending CCI clearance; expected to close soon.

20. Jio Financial plans to raise funds through preferential allotment

Impact Analysis

• Raising ₹15,825 crore via warrants to promoter entities.
• Promoter stake to exceed 51%, ensuring majority control.

21. Tata Motors to make its biggest global buy of Iveco for a sum of $4.5 billion

Impact Analysis

• Acquiring from Agnelli family; surpasses JLR buyout scale.
• Second largest Tata deal after Corus; detailed terms awaited.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.