Finnovate Weekly Capsule (July 14–July 18, 2025)

Welcome to the Finnovate Weekly Capsule, where we break down key financial developments from the week of July 14 to July 18, 2025. Here's a concise round-up of the headlines that moved markets and the implications for professionals and investors alike.

1. India CPI inflation falls to a 77 month low of 2.10% as food prices plummet

Impact Analysis

• While the food inflation dipped into negative at -1.06%, the core inflation continued to inch higher to 4.40% levels in June
• With contraction in food prices, it is very likely that the RBI may take up one more rate cut in August or in October 2025

2. Producer inflation (WPI) also dipped into the negative in June at -0.13%

Impact Analysis

• Within the WPI basket, the primary articles basket (including food) contracted -3.38%, while fuel & power was at -2.65%
• Manufacturing WPI inflation at 1.97% has been progressively lower in last few months, promising lower input costs

3. MF buying in June 2025 was focused on India stories, while selling into froth

Impact Analysis

• Big MF buys in June were Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, HZL, Varun Beverages, Siemens Energy, Trent, and Adani Group
• Big MF sells in June were Coal India, Tata Motors, Indus Towers, Union Bank, DLF, Nestle India, Zydus, TVS Motors

4. There were a total of 14 sectors in June 2025 where MFs held over ₹1 trillion

Impact Analysis

• Sectors with highest yoy absolute AUM growth were BFSI, Pharma, Retail, IT, Chemicals, Telecom, Oil, FMCG, and Auto
• Sectors with highest yoy percentage AUM growth were Retail, Aviation, Agri, Ratings, Chemicals, Jewellery, and Telecom

5. US June consumer inflation spiked by 30 bps to 2.7% for June 2025

Impact Analysis

• While food inflation and core inflation were up by 10 basis points each, energy inflation hardened by 270 basis points
• This spike in inflation is largely attributed to the downstream impact of tariffs and broadly justifies FOMC stance on rates

6. India merchandise trade deficit for June 2025 sharply lower at $18.78 billion

Impact Analysis

• The exports were lower MOM, but imports fell sharply due to a sharp reduction in the import value of crude oil and gold
• The overall deficit for June 2025, after considering services trade surplus, stood at a healthy $(3.52) billion only

7. The NSDL offer for sale likely to open for subscription in the coming week

Impact Analysis

• This IPO will entail the sale of shares by several early investors including IDBI Bank, National Stock Exchange (NSE), and SBI
• The IPO size is expected to be close to ₹4,350 crore and this IPO is expected to give a major leg-up to the primary markets

8. India rejects America’s unilateral plan to impose secondary sanctions on India

Impact Analysis

• India has maintained that US sanctions must not come in the way of Sovereign India ensuring energy security for its people
• Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, had hinted at secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Russia

9. For Q1FY26, Reliance reported a 76.5% growth in net profits at ₹30,783 crore

Impact Analysis

• This included the gain from sale of listed investments (Asian Paints) of ₹8,924 crore; without which growth would be 25%
• Reliance Industries also reported a 6% growth in sales revenues for Q1FY26 at ₹2.73 trillion, led by Jio and Retail

10. Jio Platforms grew revenues by 18.8% and segment profits by 24.9% in Q1

Impact Analysis

• In terms of operational performance, Jio Platforms reported ARPU of ₹208.8 (14.9% up yoy) and 210 bps margin boost
• For Q1FY26, Jio Platforms added 99 lakh subscribers taking their total subscriber base to 49.8 crore; leaders by a margin

11. Tata Sons will invest $400 million out of dividends from TCS into Tata Digital

Impact Analysis

• Tata Digital was conceived as the super app ecosystem for the Tata group and priority is to be competitive in ecommerce
• That would still be a small part of the ₹32,700 crore, Tata Sons has received as dividends from TCS in the fiscal year FY25

12. DLF will tap the high-end realty market in Mumbai, to cater to the super rich

Impact Analysis

• DLF recently launched its premium Westpark in Andheri West and will create more on the lines of Camelias of Gurugram
• In 2005, DLF acquired 17 acres of prime property in Lower Parel for ₹704 crore but later sold it to Lodha for ₹2,700 crore

13. JSW Steel reported a 155% growth in net profits for Q1FY26 at ₹2,209 crore

Impact Analysis

• For the quarter, the operating revenue of JSW Steel were just marginally higher yoy at ₹43,147 crore on better volumes
• The growth in net profits for JSW Steel was largely driven by a sharp drop in coking coal prices, a key input for making steel

14. Another iconic Indian brand, Kelvinator, lands on the lap of Reliance Retail

Impact Analysis

• Reliance Retail has just acquired the Kelvinator brand of refrigerators from Electrolux for a sum of ₹160 crore
• Its consumer strategy has focused on nostalgia buying iconic brands like Campa Cola, Ravalgaon Chocolates, Lotus etc

15. SEBI plans a second round of MF scheme streamlining to reduce overlaps

Impact Analysis

• On the equity side, SEBI will allow MFs to launch value and contra funds, provided overlap is less than 50% between them
• In addition, arbitrage funds can only add G-Secs and has also asked sectoral debt funds to keep overlap under 60%

16. PMO plans to get personally involved in breaking the rare earths deadlock

Impact Analysis

• Rare earth magnets are a key input for auto sector (especially EVs) and the key producer (China) has put export restrictions
• The government has already announced a ₹1,345 crore incentive scheme to boost domestic production of rare earths

17. Indian Inc is flush with cash, with 303 companies turning debt-free in FY25

Impact Analysis

• As a result, the cash available in the books of Indian companies in FY25 alone has doubled to ₹50,463 crore
• On the flip side, this also points to the fact that, despite so much cash on the books, India Inc is not investing enough

18. India met its 2030 target for renewable energy capacity in year 2025 itself

Impact Analysis

• The target was to achieve 50% of target RE capacity by 2030, but 242 GW out of the 484 GW total was done in 2025 itself
• While solar capacity still dominates at 111 GW, wind energy is close behind at 51 GW, followed by hydro at 48 GW installed

19. Viceroy Research, the US based short seller, calls out governance at Vedanta

Impact Analysis

• According to Viceroy, the Vedanta group has been using hefty dividends from HZL and Vedanta Ltd for its UK parent debt
• Viceroy went to the extent of calling Vedanta akin to a Ponzi scheme with risks to creditors being largely underappreciated

20. SEBI wants gold and silver ETFs in India to value based on exchange spot prices

Impact Analysis

• Currently, these funds use the IBJA benchmark rate, but SEBI feels that a market determined rate is more credible
• This is likely to bring about greater uniformity in assessing the performance of fast growing gold and silver ETFs in India

21. A recent Wall Street Journal report on pilot error criticized by Air India

Impact Analysis

• The airline felt that WSJ was jumping to conclusions based on the preliminary report, rather than waiting for the full report
• Most aviation experts in India aver that it is impossible for any pilot to manually shut the switch at such short notice

Disclaimer: This capsule is meant purely for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.