News Announcement

Impact Analysis

Ø  India IIP growth for March improved slightly to 3.0%, with FY25 IIP at 4.0%

Ø  While mining IIP fell in March, manufacturing was just 20 bps higher, but electricity provided the real boost to IIP

Ø  While positive growth in IIP came from the domestic oriented sectors, pressure was again visible in the export plays

Ø  In a surprising shift, the US Q1 GDP first advance estimated contracted -0.3%

Ø  This was triggered by a spike in imports of goods and a slowdown in government spending, especially in defence

Ø  Due to the uncertain macro environment, personal financial consumption plummeted, leading to sharply lower growth

Ø  The US PCE inflation for March 2025 fell by 40 bps from 2.7% to 2.3%

Ø  The fall was led by a sharp fall in core inflation, which fell by 40 bps from 3.0% to 2.6%, as oil prices contracted further

Ø  There was a 50 bps spike in food inflation in March, but it is the services inflation that is proving to be the sore point

Ø  CME Fedwatch expects 100 bps cut in 2025 and 25 bps more in 2026

Ø  The broad estimates have not changed, although there has been some back-ending with rate cuts pushed to second half

Ø  Weak GDP and low PCE inflation provide the US Fed the necessary justification to be more aggressive on rate cuts

Ø  FPIs closed the month of April 2025 with net equity inflows of $510 million

Ø  The first fortnight saw FPI net selling of $(3.96) billion while the second fortnight saw FPI net buying of $4.57 billion

Ø  However, FPIs have turned net sellers in Indian debt paper as the yield spreads with US benchmark yields has narrowed

Ø  US dollar index (DXY) closed at 99.53; below the 100 mark for 3 week in a row

Ø  The economic uncertainty and the contraction in GDP have put further pressure on the dollar, leading the index lower

Ø  The sharp fall in the dollar index has helped the Indian rupee recover from a low of ₹87.5/$ to current level of ₹84.5/$

Ø  Brent Crude oil prices fell to a 4-year low of $60-$61/bbl, a boon for India

Ø  The price of Brent has fallen after Saudi Arabia decided to shift from supply cuts to increasing supply even at lower price

Ø  Even on the demand side, the trade war and the latest GDP contraction reported by the US economy, dented oil demand

Ø  S&P Ratings has cut India’s FY26 GDP growth estimate by 20 bps to 6.3%

Ø  S&P has cited a combination of global economic shocks and the tariff uncertainty as key reasons for this downgrade

Ø  In addition, it also expects the lag effect on FY27, reducing GDP estimate by 30 bps to 6.5%, with more downside risks

Ø  OYO has again decided to put off its IPO to 2026 after Softbank cut valuations

Ø  Earlier, OYO had filed for its IPO in 2021 and 2023 and this is third abortive IPO attempt for OYO after drop in valuations

Ø  Apparently, the decision to delay the IPO is in exchange for a promised extension of the loan arranged by Softbank

Ø  Equity flows are expected to turn robust in April, after 3 bad months

Ø  This is the inference based on aggressive mutual fund buying in the secondary markets, plus steady inflows from SIPs

Ø  Two consecutive months of positive returns by the Nifty has already given confidence to fund managers to re-enter

Ø  Supreme Court rejects JSW takeover plan for Bhushan Steel & Power Ltd

Ø  Supreme Court called the resolution plan a violation of the IBC code and called for liquidation of the company

Ø  JSW  is yet to respond to the order and would be deciding on next course of action after consulting its legal experts

Ø  SEBI relaxes norms for brokers to expand into GIFT City, Gujarat

Ø  SEBI has done away with the NOC requirement and allowed brokers to start IFSC operations without prior approval

Ø  However, the unit at IFSC would have to be a strategic business unit (SBU) with separate identifiable net worth

Ø  Start-up funding April 2025 at $745 million marked a one-year low

Ø  This is a sharp fall from the levels in January 2025, when the start-up funding stood at a robust level of $1.76 billion

Ø  While Spinny was the largest funding deal in April; Bengaluru and Delhi NCR accounted jointly for 70% of the fund raising

Ø  Godrej Properties eyes bookings of ₹32,500 crore in fiscal FY26

Ø  This is about 10% higher than FY25, when it sold 15,302 residential units worth ₹29,444 crore; 10% above projections

Ø  In FY26, GPL is looking at property launches worth ₹40,000 crore across Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Pune, and Bengaluru regions

Ø  April 2025 jobs data showed the US rate of unemployment steady at 4.2%

Ø  Non-farm payrolls in April 2025 increased by 1,77,000, which is marginally lower than the addition in March 2025

Ø  The US economy needs to keep adding at least 1,00,000 jobs a month to sustain growth, and tariffs could be the challenge

Ø  The response to Ather Energy IPO was relatively tepid at just 1.43 times

Ø  There were great expectations, being the first IPO in 75 days and also due to 45% IPO size absorbed by anchor investors

Ø  QIB and retail portion got subscribed 1.70 times and 1.78 times respectively, while HNI portion got just 66% subscription

Ø  Zoho, the company floated by Sridhar Vembu, has shelved chip making plans

Ø  Zoho was supposed to invest $700 million in the chip facility, but called it off as it could not get the right technology partner

Ø  Earlier, even Adani had shelved its chips plan for the same reason, and that is not good news for the government plans

Ø  Infosys continued to cut its trainee staff, having reduced 800 since Feb-25

Ø  According to Infosys, these are routine layoffs of trainees who fail to pass the examinations after 3 repeated attempts

Ø  However, this is indicative of a larger trend where IT companies cannot afford a large bench as use of AI increases

Ø  India placed a $7.5 billion order for 26 Naval variant jets from Rafale of France

Ø  The overall deal includes the supply of fighter aircraft starting 5 years from now; ancillary equipment and weapon systems

Ø  The order was positive for Indian defence stocks, but assumes added significance in the light of the border skirmishes

Ø  Diplomatic ties between Pakistan and India have worsened after Pahalgam

Ø  While India has cut all diplomatic ties with Pakistan, it has also decided to suspend the ongoing Indus Water treaty

Ø  On its side, Pakistan has also severed all diplomatic ties with India and also blocked Pakistani airspace to Indian aircraft

Ø  BFSI funds have led the rally in mutual funds in tandem with Nifty bounce

Ø  As the Nifty gained 10% from the lows, the BFSI funds have outperformed at 14.5%, largely due to domestic base

Ø  Other categories that have done well include small cap, mid-cap, consumption as well as various business cycle funds