Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Nov 17–Nov 21, 2025)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Below are the top headlines from Nov 17–Nov 21, 2025, with concise impact analysis to help you understand what these developments could mean for markets, policy, and your portfolio.

1. India core sector growth came in flat at 0.0% for October 2025

Impact Analysis

• Core sector growth has fallen sharply over the last two months, led by weakness in coal and electricity.
• Even bellwethers like steel and cement showed slowing growth - a warning sign for industrial momentum and near-term GDP prospects.

2. November Fed meeting showed FOMC was deeply divided on rates

Impact Analysis

• Only three members (Miran, Waller, Bowman) wanted more rate cuts; others were neutral or hawkish, reflecting policy uncertainty.
• CME FedWatch assigns low odds to December cuts in 2025, with consensus tilting toward ~2 rate cuts in 2026 instead.

3. US unemployment for September 2025 inched up to 4.4%

Impact Analysis

• Data release was delayed by the US shutdown; the 10 bps rise signals cooling labour market momentum.
• While non-farm payrolls showed pockets of strength, revised August figures pointed to weaker job creation, complicating Fed outlook.

4. ₹18,000 crore Infosys buyback opens (20–26 Nov)

Impact Analysis

• Infosys will buy back 10 crore shares at ₹1,800 each with a record date of 14-Nov - a significant capital return to shareholders.
• Tax treatment on buyback proceeds matters for high-income holders and could create capital loss/tax planning considerations.

5. India October merchandise trade deficit hits record $41.6 billion

Impact Analysis

• Surging imports (notably nearly $15bn of gold) outpaced exports, driving the record goods deficit.
• Services exports remained robust but could not offset the goods gap, implying a larger CAD for Q3FY26.

6. Indian companies sitting on large cash pile, but capex plans tentative

Impact Analysis

• As of Q2FY26, companies held ~₹14.2 trillion in cash - ample balance sheets but cautious investment intent.
• Many firms prioritise debt reduction over aggressive capex, which may delay cyclical recovery in fixed investment.

7. 4 of 5 mainboard IPOs closed at a premium on listing day

Impact Analysis

• Strong listings included EMVEE Photo (+1.11%), Tenneco Clean Air (+23.6%) and PhysicsWallah (+42.4%); a few listings underperformed.
• Positive listing performance suggests selective investor appetite for quality stories despite mixed IPO sentiment.

8. India PMI Manufacturing slips to a 9-month low in November 2025

Impact Analysis

• Private sector output grew at its slowest pace in six months, reflecting cooling factory activity.
• Weak PMI raises concerns about near-term GDP resilience and the sustainability of demand-led growth.

9. IMF cuts G20 growth outlook; forecasts weakest pace since 2009

Impact Analysis

• Global growth headwinds from rising protectionism and policy uncertainty could restrain trade and investment flows.
• Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are expected to fare relatively better, growing nearer to ~4%.

10. SEBI to consider unbundling brokerage for MFs at December board meet

Impact Analysis

• Proposal aims to prevent double-charging investors for broker research when they already pay advisors - a consumer-friendly move.
• If implemented, it could change distribution economics for MFs and reshape broker-MF relationships.

11. Meesho plans Dec-25 IPO at ~₹52,500 crore indicative valuation

Impact Analysis

• Meesho expects to raise ₹4,250 crore via fresh issue plus OFS by early investors; IPO execution will test market appetite for ecommerce stories.
• Funds targeted at cloud infra, marketing and growth investments - valuation and timing will be critical.

12. USDINR hits all-time low of ₹89.48 as dollar rallies

Impact Analysis

• Dollar strength followed Fed rate cut expectations being ruled out and the end of the US shutdown - hedging flows pressured the rupee.
• Rupee volatility may increase import costs and FX hedging needs for corporates.

13. Labour law revamp: gratuity payable after 1 year

Impact Analysis

• Reduction in vesting period from 5 years to 1 year expands access to gratuity for short-tenure employees.
• Employers may face higher payout liabilities and HR cost pressures as workforce mobility increases.

14. Indian corporate debt rises 7% as of end-Q2FY26

Impact Analysis

• Total debt for ~3,600 companies stands at ₹56.35 trillion; net debt at ₹42.16 trillion, with top firms driving the increase.
• While some companies turned debt-free, concentrated debt rise may amplify sectoral vulnerabilities if growth softens.

15. India defence output in FY25 hits ₹1.54 trillion with 15.3% exports

Impact Analysis

• Private sector leads defence exports while PSUs dominate domestic output - strong order book momentum persists.
• Large contract pipeline supports manufacturing, but execution and quality control remain critical.

16. Michael Burry calls NVIDIA results a big AI bubble

Impact Analysis

• Burry cites heavy buybacks and accounting concerns - a skeptical view on NVIDIA’s earnings quality amid AI exuberance.
• Contrarian views highlight valuation risk in mega-cap AI names and underscore need for fundamental scrutiny.

17. TCS and TPG partner on $2 billion data centre plan

Impact Analysis

• Joint investment to scale Gigawatt-level data centres - strategic for AI, cloud and sovereign data needs.
• Location selection and execution will determine how effectively this supports TCS’s large-scale data ambitions.

18. Kotak Mahindra Bank approves 5:1 stock split

Impact Analysis

• Split increases outstanding shares from ~280 crore to ~1,400 crore, reducing the nominal price per share.
• Stock splits are value-neutral but often improve retail accessibility and liquidity over time.

19. L’Oréal to set up a major Global Competency Centre in India

Impact Analysis

• GCC will support tech, research and innovation mandates, signalling India’s growing role in high-end corporate functions.
• Such investments create high-skilled jobs and deepen India’s global service offerings.

20. Merchant bankers rake in over ₹375 crore in fees from 3 IPOs

Impact Analysis

• Groww, Lenskart and PhysicsWallah generated hefty IB fees (~₹100–150 crore each), making merchant bankers a significant beneficiary of the IPO wave.
• High fees highlight the cost structure of listings and raise conversations on issuer economics.

21. Adani Enterprises set to take over Jaiprakash Industries

Impact Analysis

• Adani’s ₹13,500 crore bid was preferred by the committee of creditors for upfront payment advantages despite being lower than Vedanta’s offer.
• Deal completion will influence the cement sector’s ownership map and balance-sheet consolidation trends.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.