Large Caps in June 2025: Tracking the Bounce and Swing

A Strong Month for the Nifty - Momentum Continues

It was another robust monthly performance by the Nifty in June 2025. After gaining 3.5% in April and 1.7% in May; the Nifty added another 3.1% in June 2025. It was a mix of positive FPI flows as well as positive news flows. The RBI cut rates by a full 50 basis points in its June policy and also announced reduction of 100 bps in the CRR in phases. More importantly, inflation and CAD are well in control, although growth still leaves a lot to be desired. The positive sentiments were aptly reflected in the Nifty June 2025 performance. Here is a granular break-up of Nifty performance for a 360-degree view.

Understanding the Swing and Bounce Rankings

Data Source: NSE

How Large Caps in June 2025 Compared with May and April?

Let us first look at the 1st table, which reflects the swing. It is measured as a combination of 1-month returns and proximity to the peak price of the year. In April, the focus of the leaders was on CPSEs and defence stocks, which was obvious in war-like conditions. In May also, the defence story sustained but financials made an impact. In June, the swing entirely favoured the financials.

What about the bounce factor in the 2nd below table? Here we have looked at the 1-year returns and also the bounce from yearly lows. While financials are present here also, there are also other consumer stories that are seen here. Also, stocks like BEL and Bharti Airtel continue to be market favourites. While financials are still a proxy for the India consumption story, other themes like telecom and consumer services also emerged.

Large Cap Themes That Emerged in June 2025

• In terms of the broad sectors that dominated swing (short term); the theme was about financials, although stock specific names like BEL and Bharti Airtel emerged.
• If one looks at bounce (long term), the theme is once again dominated by the financials. However, other consumer proxies are also present in this list.
• There are some stocks that have emerged as strong plays in terms of swing and bounce. BEL and Bharti Airtel are two bottom-up plays for third month in a row.
• If one were to look at swing and bounce, the financials theme has gone beyond large cap banks into mid-cap banks, NBFCs, and other insurance plays.
• One cannot miss the broader theme at a macro level. For the second month in a row, the subtle shift is out of the globally exposed sectors and in favour of the more specific domestic stories. That explains financials, telecom, and defence.

Conclusion: What June Signals for the Road Ahead

The Nifty’s performance in June 2025 builds on the positive momentum of the previous months. With financials continuing to dominate both swing and bounce rankings, the sector is clearly riding high on domestic consumption and liquidity themes. Meanwhile, consistent performers like BEL and Bharti Airtel underscore the strength of bottom-up stock picking.

The emerging trend suggests investors are gradually shifting focus from global-exposed sectors to India-centric stories. As we step into the next quarter, this preference for domestic resilience could continue to drive returns - especially in financials, telecom, and defence-linked names.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.