Finnovate Weekly Capsule (Dec 01–Dec 05, 2025)

Welcome to this week’s edition of Finnovate’s Weekly Capsule. Below are the top headlines from Dec 01–Dec 05, 2025, with concise impact analysis to help you understand what these developments could mean for markets, policy, and your portfolio.

1. RBI MPC cuts repo rates by 25 bps in December policy to 5.25%

Impact Analysis

• Repo at 5.25% reduces linked SDF to 5.00% and MSF/bank rate to 5.50% - an easing bias to support growth.
• Decision was unanimous on the cut, but the vote to keep the policy stance “Neutral” was 5:1, signalling cautious easing ahead.

2. RBI MPC ups GDP forecast by 50 bps and lowers FY26 inflation by 60 bps

Impact Analysis

• RBI raised FY26 real GDP forecast from 6.8% to 7.3% on strong H1 data, signalling optimism on growth momentum.
• With sustained negative food inflation, RBI trimmed FY26 CPI forecast from 2.6% to 2.0%, enabling room for policy easing.

3. IIP growth for Oct 2025 slowed sharply to 0.40%

Impact Analysis

• Mining contracted -1.8% and electricity -6.9% in Oct; manufacturing growth eased to 1.8% sequentially, highlighting tariff and demand stress.
• Soft IIP adds a cautionary note to the growth story despite optimistic GDP forecasts.

4. Indian rupee weakens beyond ₹90/$ despite late RBI support

Impact Analysis

• Rupee pressure driven by delays in Indo-US trade pact, hedging demand from oil importers and active NDF selling.
• RBI interventions provided temporary relief but FX volatility remains a near-term risk for corporates and imports.

5. Spot gold rallies while silver hits record highs

Impact Analysis

• Spot gold sustained above $4,250/oz as investors sought safe havens; silver touched new highs near $59/oz driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand.
• Precious metals flows underline persistent macro uncertainty and commodity-driven inflation risks.

6. India hosts Putin amid diplomatic balancing on energy ties

Impact Analysis

• India maintains energy security priorities with continued Russian oil imports amid US pressure - a calibrated diplomatic stance.
• Trade-offs include bilateral balances and geopolitical signaling to key partners.

7. Netflix to buy Warner Bros for ~$72 billion in a mega media move

Impact Analysis

• Netflix pays a premium to acquire Warner media assets, boosting scale to better compete with Disney and others.
• Industry consolidation could reshape streaming economics, content costs, and global distribution strategies.

8. India to buy 24 Seahawk helicopters from Lockheed worth $946 million

Impact Analysis

• Seahawk acquisition strengthens naval anti-submarine and surveillance capabilities - a boost to maritime security.
• Defence procurement supports local suppliers and long-term operational readiness of the Navy.

9. S&P upgrades Reliance Industries’ debt rating 2 notches above sovereign

Impact Analysis

• Premium rating reflects RIL’s strong balance sheet and dollar-linked revenues, signalling resilience in stress scenarios.
• Higher rating may lower borrowing costs and expand investor base for RIL debt instruments.

10. IndiGo cancels ~500 flights daily over new Flight Duty Time Limitation rules

Impact Analysis

• New FDTL rules aimed at reducing pilot fatigue have forced scheduling disruptions; Indigo’s market dominance makes impact widespread.
• Operational adjustments may take time and could temporarily affect load factors and revenues.

11. Electric 4-wheeler registrations jump 2,700% since 2021

Impact Analysis

• EV registrations (2W and 4W) have surged, supported by charging infra expansion and supply chain improvements.
• Rapid EV adoption reshapes auto OEM strategies and creates opportunities across charging, batteries and downstream services.

12. BAT PLC sells 9% stake in ITC Hotels for ₹3,820 crore

Impact Analysis

• BAT reduces stake to lower debt and monetize asset value; buyers included Nippon MF, Vanguard and HCL Capital.
• Strategic exit reshuffles ownership in hotel assets and could spur portfolio re-rating for ITC Hotels.

13. Meesho IPO subscribed 79.3X at close (investor interest ~₹2.44 trillion)

Impact Analysis

• Late surge in QIB applications pushed subscription to 79.3X, underlining strong institutional interest in select ecommerce stories.
• High subscription levels may support robust listing performance, subject to market sentiment at listing.

14. Finfluencer Avadhut Sathe denies SEBI allegations on trading advice

Impact Analysis

• Sathe contends he provided education-only courses, but SEBI alleges unregistered investment advice - regulatory scrutiny on influencers intensifies.
• Enforcement could set precedents for content-led financial services and education platforms.

15. Adani and Hindalco scout copper assets in Peru & Latin America

Impact Analysis

• Securing copper supplies addresses import dependency concerns (projected up to 93% reliance by 2047) and supports domestic metal ecosystems.
• Overseas mining deals will require geopolitical, environmental and operational diligence.

16. CASA ratios dip for private & PSU banks in Q2FY26

Impact Analysis

• Overall CASA at 36.38% (down 115 bps YoY) reflects a shift toward term deposits - impacting banks’ low-cost deposit base.
• Lower CASA raises cost of funds and pressures NIMs unless offset by loan growth or fee income.

17. Government rules out raising FDI in PSU banks to 49%

Impact Analysis

• FDI limits remain conservative (PSU banks capped at 20%) despite capital needs; privatisation and recapitalisation paths stay constrained.
• Policy choice affects bank consolidation, capital access and long-term efficiency reforms in public sector banking.

18. Michael Burry warns of implosion risks in NVIDIA and Palantir

Impact Analysis

• Burry highlights valuation and excess capacity concerns, pointing to parallels with past tech bubbles.
• Contrarian warnings underscore the need for valuation discipline in AI and big-data winners.

19. Manipal Hospitals likely to file for ~$1 billion IPO in Jan 2026

Impact Analysis

• IPO to combine fresh issue and OFS; implied valuation >$13bn could make Manipal the most valuable hospital chain in India.
• Listing will be a key test of investor appetite for healthcare assets and organised hospital valuations.

20. Four major IPOs expected next week raising ₹3,735 crore; ICICI Prudential AMC IPO also imminent

Impact Analysis

• Corona Remedies, Wakefit, Park Medi World and Nephrocare Health target ₹3,735 crore combined; ICICI Prudential AMC OFS expected in ~10 days.
• Strong IPO calendar keeps primary market active and provides allocation opportunities for investors.

21. Wakefit raises ₹580 crore from anchors (45% of issue)

Impact Analysis

• Bengaluru-based Wakefit drew 33 anchor investors, including HDFC MF, Axis MF, Nippon MF and global funds - signal of institutional backing.
• Anchor support provides price discovery confidence ahead of the public subscription.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or product recommendations. Please consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.