SIP Flows Are Slowing: Why Retail Investors Should Stop Timing the Market
SIP folio share is falling and SIP stoppage ratios are above 75% post Apr 2025 clean-up. H...
Scenario
1: I am
25-year-old. My basic salary is Rs 30,000. I will exhaust the full limit of EPF
(12% of basic salary). Here, I will increase my EPF contribution 5% every year.
My EPF at the time of retirement at 60 years of age?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scenario 1 |
|||
|
Age |
Year |
Invested Value |
Future Value |
|
25 |
1 |
43200 |
46,764 |
|
26 |
2 |
45360 |
53,153 |
|
27 |
3 |
47628 |
60,415 |
|
28 |
4 |
50009 |
68,669 |
|
29 |
5 |
52510 |
78,051 |
|
30 |
6 |
55135 |
88,715 |
|
31 |
7 |
57892 |
1,00,836 |
|
32 |
8 |
60787 |
1,14,613 |
|
33 |
9 |
63826 |
1,30,271 |
|
34 |
10 |
67017 |
1,48,070 |
|
35 |
11 |
70368 |
1,68,300 |
|
36 |
12 |
73887 |
1,91,294 |
|
37 |
13 |
77581 |
2,17,429 |
|
38 |
14 |
81460 |
2,47,136 |
|
39 |
15 |
85533 |
2,80,900 |
|
40 |
16 |
89810 |
3,19,279 |
|
41 |
17 |
94300 |
3,62,900 |
|
42 |
18 |
99015 |
4,12,481 |
|
43 |
19 |
103966 |
4,68,836 |
|
44 |
20 |
109164 |
5,32,891 |
|
45 |
21 |
114622 |
6,05,697 |
|
46 |
22 |
120354 |
6,88,451 |
|
47 |
23 |
126371 |
7,82,510 |
|
48 |
24 |
132690 |
8,89,421 |
|
49 |
25 |
139324 |
10,10,938 |
|
50 |
26 |
146291 |
11,49,057 |
|
51 |
27 |
153605 |
13,06,047 |
|
52 |
28 |
161285 |
14,84,486 |
|
53 |
29 |
169350 |
16,87,304 |
|
54 |
30 |
177817 |
19,17,832 |
|
55 |
31 |
186708 |
21,79,856 |
|
56 |
32 |
196043 |
24,77,679 |
|
57 |
33 |
205845 |
28,16,191 |
|
58 |
34 |
216138 |
32,00,954 |
|
59 |
35 |
226945 |
36,38,284 |
|
60 |
36 |
238292 |
41,35,364 |
|
|
Total |
4140129 |
3,40,61,077 |
Basic Salary: 30,000
Initial Investment: Rs 30,000 per year (12% of your basic salary)
Annual Contribution Increase: 5%
Key takeaways:
You would contribute a total of Rs 41,40,129 throughout your working years till 60.
Considering
an assumed interest rate of 8.25%, the future value of your EPF at retirement
could be around Rs 3,40,61,077.
Scenario
2. I am
25-year-old. My basic salary is Rs 30,000. I will contribute Rs 1,800 a month
to EPF and will keep it at the same level till retirement at 60. What I will do
here, I will invest the rest of the amount in a SIP and expect a 12 per cent
annual return from there. Here, I will also increase my SIP amount by 5% every
year. What will be my retirement corpus through (PF+SIP) at 60. Please exclude
long-term capital gain tax from corpus.
|
Scenario 2 |
|
Invested Value |
|
Invested Value |
|
|
Age |
Year |
EPF |
fv |
MF |
FV |
|
25 |
1 |
21600 |
23,382 |
21,600 |
24,192 |
|
26 |
2 |
21600 |
25,311 |
22,680 |
28,450 |
|
27 |
3 |
21600 |
27,399 |
23,814 |
33,457 |
|
28 |
4 |
21600 |
29,660 |
25,005 |
39,345 |
|
29 |
5 |
21600 |
32,107 |
26,255 |
46,270 |
|
30 |
6 |
21600 |
34,755 |
27,568 |
54,414 |
|
31 |
7 |
21600 |
37,623 |
28,946 |
63,991 |
|
32 |
8 |
21600 |
40,726 |
30,393 |
75,253 |
|
33 |
9 |
21600 |
44,086 |
31,913 |
88,497 |
|
34 |
10 |
21600 |
47,724 |
33,509 |
1,04,073 |
|
35 |
11 |
21600 |
51,661 |
35,184 |
1,22,390 |
|
36 |
12 |
21600 |
55,923 |
36,943 |
1,43,930 |
|
37 |
13 |
21600 |
60,536 |
38,790 |
1,69,262 |
|
38 |
14 |
21600 |
65,531 |
40,730 |
1,99,052 |
|
39 |
15 |
21600 |
70,937 |
42,767 |
2,34,085 |
|
40 |
16 |
21600 |
76,789 |
44,905 |
2,75,284 |
|
41 |
17 |
21600 |
83,124 |
47,150 |
3,23,734 |
|
42 |
18 |
21600 |
89,982 |
49,508 |
3,80,712 |
|
43 |
19 |
21600 |
97,406 |
51,983 |
4,47,717 |
|
44 |
20 |
21600 |
1,05,442 |
54,582 |
5,26,515 |
|
45 |
21 |
21600 |
1,14,140 |
57,311 |
6,19,182 |
|
46 |
22 |
21600 |
1,23,557 |
60,177 |
7,28,158 |
|
47 |
23 |
21600 |
1,33,751 |
63,186 |
8,56,314 |
|
48 |
24 |
21600 |
1,44,785 |
66,345 |
10,07,025 |
|
49 |
25 |
21600 |
1,56,730 |
69,662 |
11,84,261 |
|
50 |
26 |
21600 |
1,69,660 |
73,145 |
13,92,691 |
|
51 |
27 |
21600 |
1,83,657 |
76,803 |
16,37,805 |
|
52 |
28 |
21600 |
1,98,809 |
80,643 |
19,26,058 |
|
53 |
29 |
21600 |
2,15,210 |
84,675 |
22,65,045 |
|
54 |
30 |
21600 |
2,32,965 |
88,909 |
26,63,693 |
|
55 |
31 |
21600 |
2,52,185 |
93,354 |
31,32,502 |
|
56 |
32 |
21600 |
2,72,990 |
98,022 |
36,83,823 |
|
57 |
33 |
21600 |
2,95,512 |
1,02,923 |
43,32,176 |
|
58 |
34 |
21600 |
3,19,891 |
1,08,069 |
50,94,639 |
|
59 |
35 |
21600 |
3,46,282 |
1,13,472 |
59,91,295 |
|
60 |
36 |
21600 |
3,74,851 |
1,19,146 |
70,45,763 |
|
|
Total |
777600 |
46,35,077 |
20,70,065 |
4,69,41,053 |
|
Invested |
20,70,065 |
|
FV |
4,69,41,053 |
|
Gains |
4,48,70,989 |
|
TAX |
44,77,099 |
|
Corpus |
4,24,63,954 |
|
Total Corpus of EPF + MF |
4,70,99,032 |
|
|
|
By contributing towards your retirement corpus through SIP and EPF, you can accumulate a sizable amount of Rs. 4,70,99,032 by the time you retire at 60. This calculation excludes Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG) tax on SIP investments.
Here's a breakdown of the contributions:
EPF: Rs. 7,77,600 (assuming constant contribution of Rs. 1800 per month till retirement)
SIP: Rs. 20,70,065 (assuming a 12% annual return and 5% annual increment in SIP amount)
Scenario
3. I am 25
years old and not an employed person. I have my own business. I am starting an
SIP. The amount is the same what an employed person with a Rs 30,000 basic
salary would have contributed to EPF had he opted for a full 12% limit (As in
Scenario 1). I will also increase my SIP contribution by 5% every year. What
will be my corpus amount at 60? Please exclude long-term capital gain tax from
corpus.
|
Scenario 3 |
|
Invested Value |
|
|
Age |
Year |
MF |
FV |
|
25 |
1 |
43,200 |
48,384 |
|
26 |
2 |
45,360 |
56,900 |
|
27 |
3 |
47,628 |
66,914 |
|
28 |
4 |
50,009 |
78,691 |
|
29 |
5 |
52,510 |
92,540 |
|
30 |
6 |
55,135 |
1,08,827 |
|
31 |
7 |
57,892 |
1,27,981 |
|
32 |
8 |
60,787 |
1,50,506 |
|
33 |
9 |
63,826 |
1,76,995 |
|
34 |
10 |
67,017 |
2,08,146 |
|
35 |
11 |
70,368 |
2,44,779 |
|
36 |
12 |
73,887 |
2,87,861 |
|
37 |
13 |
77,581 |
3,38,524 |
|
38 |
14 |
81,460 |
3,98,104 |
|
39 |
15 |
85,533 |
4,68,171 |
|
40 |
16 |
89,810 |
5,50,569 |
|
41 |
17 |
94,300 |
6,47,469 |
|
42 |
18 |
99,015 |
7,61,423 |
|
43 |
19 |
1,03,966 |
8,95,434 |
|
44 |
20 |
1,09,164 |
10,53,030 |
|
45 |
21 |
1,14,622 |
12,38,364 |
|
46 |
22 |
1,20,354 |
14,56,316 |
|
47 |
23 |
1,26,371 |
17,12,627 |
|
48 |
24 |
1,32,690 |
20,14,050 |
|
49 |
25 |
1,39,324 |
23,68,522 |
|
50 |
26 |
1,46,291 |
27,85,382 |
|
51 |
27 |
1,53,605 |
32,75,610 |
|
52 |
28 |
1,61,285 |
38,52,117 |
|
53 |
29 |
1,69,350 |
45,30,089 |
|
54 |
30 |
1,77,817 |
53,27,385 |
|
55 |
31 |
1,86,708 |
62,65,005 |
|
56 |
32 |
1,96,043 |
73,67,646 |
|
57 |
33 |
2,05,845 |
86,64,352 |
|
58 |
34 |
2,16,138 |
1,01,89,277 |
|
59 |
35 |
2,26,945 |
1,19,82,590 |
|
60 |
36 |
2,38,292 |
1,40,91,526 |
|
|
Total |
41,40,129 |
9,38,82,106 |
|
Invested |
41,40,129 |
|
FV |
9,38,82,106 |
|
Gains |
8,97,41,977 |
|
TAX |
89,64,198 |
|
Corpus |
8,49,17,909 |
By starting a SIP with an annual contribution of Rs 43,200 and increasing it by 5% every year, you can accumulate a corpus of approximately Rs 8.49 crore by the time you reach 60 years old. Here's a breakdown:
Total Invested Amount: Rs 41,40,129 (matches Scenario 1)
Future Value (without capital gains tax): Rs 9,38,82,106
Estimated Capital Gains (not taxed): Rs 8,97,41,977
Corpus Amount (after excluding capital gains tax): Rs 8,49,17,909
The workings conclude that investing in a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) can potentially generate a larger retirement corpus compared to Employee Provident Fund (EPF) alone. This is because SIPs allow for higher returns (assumed 12% vs 8.25% for EPF).
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